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Indicator-based assessment of extreme threats (XTs) and their impacts on the resilience of geographical areas and critical infrastructures

Author

Listed:
  • A. Jovanović

    (Steinbeis EU-VRi: European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management (EU-VRi)
    ETH Zurich – Risk Center)

  • H. Schernberg

    (ETH Zurich – Risk Center)

  • S. Brem

    (BABS - Bundesamt Für Bevölkerungsschutz)

  • S. Chakravarty

    (Steinbeis EU-VRi: European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management (EU-VRi))

  • M. Jelić

    (Steinbeis EU-VRi: European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management (EU-VRi))

Abstract

The paper proposes an approach for anticipating and dealing with future extreme threats (x-threats or XTs, e.g., due to climate change) and threats challenging the resilience of the affected geographical areas and their infrastructures. The approach relies on a new composite indicator (CIRIX—Critical Infrastructure Resilience Index for X-threats) that combines indicators characterizing a particular XT and indicators characterizing the resilience of a given infrastructure to that XT. CIRIX, therefore, provides a threat- and infrastructure-specific measure of resilience for a given XT. We quantify the extremeness of XTs using a sub-hierarchy of indicators, including not only increased intensity but also increased complexity, increased impacts, and other characteristics. To illustrate the use of CIRIX for stress testing, we construct a synthetic but plausible XT scenario based on a historical event, the 2005 flooding in the Swiss city of Lucerne. We analyze it using CIRIX to investigate the resilience of the area’s most critical infrastructures. The threat-and-resilience assessments were performed using the ResilienceTool. The approach allows to (a) enhance preparedness for XTs, (b) perform “what-if” analyses (e.g., by varying values of threat or resilience indicators), (c) optimize resilience-related decisions, (d) stress test the resilience of critical infrastructures, and (e) potentially use the analysis results for insurance purposes (e.g., using CIRIX for parametric insurance).

Suggested Citation

  • A. Jovanović & H. Schernberg & S. Brem & S. Chakravarty & M. Jelić, 2023. "Indicator-based assessment of extreme threats (XTs) and their impacts on the resilience of geographical areas and critical infrastructures," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 599-624, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:43:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s10669-023-09950-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-023-09950-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cate Fox-Lent & Matthew E. Bates & Igor Linkov, 2015. "A matrix approach to community resilience assessment: an illustrative case at Rockaway Peninsula," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 209-218, June.
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