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The effect of climate change on the future of rainfed wheat cultivation in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Parisa Alizadeh-Dehkordi

    (Shahrekord University)

  • Behnam Kamkar

    (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad)

  • Alireza Nehbandani

    (Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources)

Abstract

Rising temperatures of 1.5–4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century and continuing after 2100 have caused climate change to threaten food security. Indeed, the rainfed production of strategic crops such as wheat in countries such as Iran, which are likely to be highly affected by climate change, is very important. This study aimed to identify the suitable areas for rainfed wheat cultivation and the yield gap estimation in current and future climatic conditions using geographical analysis, a crop simulation model, and the GYGA protocol in Iran. For this, environmental variables (including average, minimum, and maximum temperatures, rainfall) along with topographic (slope, elevation) and edaphic components (such as organic carbon, pH, EC, [CaCO3], exchangeable sodium percentage, cation exchange capacity, and soil erosion) were involved. The results revealed that around 30% of the total areas (6.62 million ha) are not suitable at all, while just 13% of total lands (2.97 million ha) were highly suitable and suitable. These areas are mainly located in the northern part of Iran. The study of the climate change scenarios indicated that the northern, northwestern, and western parts of the country have great potential for rainfed wheat production and future climate change will benefit wheat production in these areas, but in other parts of the country, more unfavorable conditions are expected. The mean water-limited potential yield (Yw) difference between marginally suitable to not suitable classes was narrow (

Suggested Citation

  • Parisa Alizadeh-Dehkordi & Behnam Kamkar & Alireza Nehbandani, 2024. "The effect of climate change on the future of rainfed wheat cultivation in Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 687-709, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02728-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02728-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Akpoti, Komlavi & Kabo-bah, Amos T. & Zwart, Sander J., 2019. "Agricultural land suitability analysis: State-of-the-art and outlooks for integration of climate change analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 172-208.
    2. Amal Aldababseh & Marouane Temimi & Praveen Maghelal & Oliver Branch & Volker Wulfmeyer, 2018. "Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Irrigated Agriculture Suitability to Achieve Food Security in an Arid Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-33, March.
    3. Yuan Gao & Anyu Zhang & Yaojie Yue & Jing’ai Wang & Peng Su, 2021. "Predicting Shifts in Land Suitability for Maize Cultivation Worldwide Due to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-31, March.
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