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Statistical interpretation of environmental influencing parameters on COVID-19 during the lockdown in Delhi, India

Author

Listed:
  • Amit Awasthi

    (University of Petroleum and Energy Studies)

  • Aditi Sharma

    (University of Petroleum and Energy Studies)

  • Prabhjot Kaur

    (Uttaranchal University)

  • Balakrishnaiah Gugamsetty

    (Sri Krishnadevaraya University)

  • Akshay Kumar

    (Sri Guru Granth Sahib World University Fatehgarh Sahib)

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease is known as COVID-19, which is declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization during March 2020. In this study, the COVID-19 connection with various weather parameters like temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity is investigated and the future scenario of COVID-19 is predicted based on the Gaussian model (GM). This study is conducted in Delhi, the capital city of India, during the lowest mobility rate due to strict lockdown nationwide for about two months from March 15 to May 17, 2020. Spearman correlation is applied to obtain the interconnection of COVID-19 cases with weather parameters. Based on statistical analysis, this has been observed that the temperature parameter shows a significant positive trend during the period of study. The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is fitted with respect to the number of days by using the Gaussian curve and it is estimated on the basis of the model that maximum cases will go up to 123,886 in number. The maximum number of cases will be observed during the range of 166 ± 36 days. It is also estimated by using the width of the fitted GM that it will take minimum of 10 months for the complete recovery from COVID-19. Additionally, the linear regression technique is used to find the trend of COVID-19 cases with temperature and it is estimated that with an increase in temperature by 1 °C, 30 new COVID-19 cases on daily basis will be expected to observe. This study is believed to be a preliminary study and to better understand the concrete relationship of coronavirus, at least one complete cycle is essential to investigate. The laboratory-based study is essential to be done to support the present field-based study. Henceforth, based on preliminary studies, significant inputs are put forth to the research community and government to formulate thoughtful strategies like medical facilities such as ventilators, beds, testing centers, quarantine centers, etc., to curb the effects of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Amit Awasthi & Aditi Sharma & Prabhjot Kaur & Balakrishnaiah Gugamsetty & Akshay Kumar, 2021. "Statistical interpretation of environmental influencing parameters on COVID-19 during the lockdown in Delhi, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 8147-8160, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1007_s10668-020-01000-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01000-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sneha Gautam & Luc Hens, 2020. "COVID-19: impact by and on the environment, health and economy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 4953-4954, August.
    2. Sneha Gautam & Luc Hens, 2020. "SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in India: what might we expect?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 3867-3869, June.
    3. Sneha Gautam & Ujwalkumar Trivedi, 2020. "Global implications of bio-aerosol in pandemic," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 3861-3865, June.
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