IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/demogr/v57y2020i6d10.1007_s13524-020-00929-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Recent Trends in U.S. Childbearing Intentions

Author

Listed:
  • Caroline Sten Hartnett

    (University of South Carolina)

  • Alison Gemmill

    (Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

The U.S. period total fertility rate has declined steadily since the Great Recession, reaching 1.73 children in 2018, the lowest level since the 1970s. This pattern could mean that current childbearing cohorts will end up with fewer children than previous cohorts, or this same pattern could be an artifact of a tempo distortion if individuals are simply postponing births they plan to eventually have. In this research note, we use data on current parity and future intended births from the 2006–2017 National Survey of Family Growth to shed light on this issue. We find that total intended parity declined (from 2.26 in 2006–2010 to 2.16 children in 2013–2017), and the proportion intending to remain childless increased slightly. Decomposition indicates that the decline was not due to changes in population composition but rather changes in the subgroups’ rates themselves. The decline in intended parity is particularly notable at young ages and among those who are Hispanic. These results indicate that although tempo distortion is likely an important contributor to the decline in TFR, it is not the sole explanation: U.S. individuals are intending to have fewer children than their immediate predecessors, which may translate into a decline in cohort completed parity. However, the change in intended parity is modest, and average intended parity remains above two children.

Suggested Citation

  • Caroline Sten Hartnett & Alison Gemmill, 2020. "Recent Trends in U.S. Childbearing Intentions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2035-2045, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:57:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-020-00929-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00929-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13524-020-00929-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13524-020-00929-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martha J. Bailey & Melanie Guldi & Brad J. Hershbein, 2014. "Is There a Case for a "Second Demographic Transition"? Three Distinctive Features of the Post-1960 U.S. Fertility Decline," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital in History: The American Record, pages 273-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Emilio Parrado & S. Morgan, 2008. "Intergenerational fertility among hispanic women: New evidence of immigrant assimilation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(3), pages 651-671, August.
    3. Ben Jann, 2008. "The Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition for linear regression models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(4), pages 453-479, December.
    4. Eva Beaujouan & Caroline Berghammer, 2019. "The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(4), pages 507-535, August.
    5. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    6. Caroline Hartnett, 2014. "White-Hispanic differences in meeting lifetime fertility intentions in the U.S," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(43), pages 1245-1276.
    7. S. Philip Morgan & Heather Rackin, 2010. "The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 91-118, March.
    8. Tomáš Sobotka & Éva Beaujouan, 2014. "Two Is Best? The Persistence of a Two-Child Family Ideal in Europe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(3), pages 391-419, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Raalte, Alyson A & Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Nepomuceno, Marília & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2022. "The dangers of drawing cohort profiles from period data: a research note," SocArXiv frkcw, Center for Open Science.
    2. Katie Genadek & Joshua Sanders & Amanda Stevenson, 2022. "Measuring US fertility using administrative data from the Census Bureau," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(2), pages 37-58.
    3. Wendy D. Manning & Karen Benjamin Guzzo & Monica A. Longmore & Peggy C. Giordano, 2022. "Cognitive schemas and fertility motivations in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 261-284.
    4. Lawrence L. Wu & Nicholas D. E. Mark, 2023. "Is US Fertility now Below Replacement? Evidence from Period vs. Cohort Trends," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(5), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Alyson van Raalte & Ugofilippo Basellini & Carlo Giovanni Camarda & Marília R. Nepomuceno & Mikko Myrskylä, 2022. "The dangers of drawing cohort profiles from period data: a research note," Working Papers ayadh-ohbnm4x3q6cor1, French Institute for Demographic Studies.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elisabeth K. Kraus & Teresa Castro-Martín, 2018. "Does Migrant Background Matter for Adolescents’ Fertility Preferences? The Latin American 1.5 Generation in Spain," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 277-312, August.
    2. AKEJU, Kemi Funlayo, 2021. "Fertility Preference in Older Women: Effect of Place of Residence and Use of Contraceptives in Nigeria," International Journal of Social Sciences Perspectives, Online Academic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 25-30.
    3. Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Liili Abuladze & Luule Sakkeus & Sergei Zakharov, 2017. "Childbearing among first- and second-generation Russians in Estonia against the background of the sending and host countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(41), pages 1209-1254.
    4. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Eva Beaujouan & Kryštof Zeman, 2022. "Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2085-2114, October.
    5. Mikaela Brough & Paula Sheppard, 2022. "Fertility Decision-Making in the UK: Insights from a Qualitative Study among British Men and Women," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Vincenzo Galasso, 2024. "The Role of Salience and Memory in Fertility Decisions: Experimental Evidence," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-18, August.
    7. Natalie Nitsche & Sarah R. Hayford, 2020. "Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Marriage Timing, and Achieved Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 1975-2001, December.
    8. Karen Benjamin Guzzo, 2022. "The Formation and Realization of Fertility Goals Among a US Cohort in the Post‐Recession Years," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 991-1026, December.
    9. Eleonora Mussino & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Livia Elisa Ortensi & Salvatore Strozza, 2023. "Fertility Intentions Within a 3-Year Time Frame: a Comparison Between Migrant and Native Italian Women," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 233-260, March.
    10. Youngcho Lee, 2022. "Is Leave for Fathers Pronatalist? A Mixed-Methods Study of the Impact of Fathers’ Uptake of Parental Leave on Couples’ Childbearing Intentions in South Korea," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1471-1500, August.
    11. Stuart Basten & Georgia Verropoulou, 2015. "A Re-Interpretation of the ‘Two-child Norm’ in Post-Transitional Demographic Systems: Fertility Intentions in Taiwan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
    12. Natalie Nitsche & Sarah Hayford, 2018. "Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Union Formation Timing, and Achieved Fertility," VID Working Papers 1810, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    13. Gunnar Andersson & Lotta Persson & Ognjen Obućina, 2017. "Depressed fertility among descendants of immigrants in Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(39), pages 1149-1184.
    14. Zsolt Spéder & Lajos Bálint, 2024. "Realization of Short-Term Fertility Intentions in a Comparative Perspective: Which Macro-Level Conditions Matter?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(5), pages 1-49, October.
    15. Laure Spake & Susan B. Schaffnit & Rebecca Sear & Mary K. Shenk & Richard Sosis & John H. Shaver, 2021. "Mother’s Partnership Status and Allomothering Networks in the United Kingdom and United States," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-25, May.
    16. Vicente Díaz Gandasegui & Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel & Maria T. Sanz, 2021. "Back to the Future: a Sensitivity Analysis to Predict Future Fertility Rates Considering the Influence of Family Policies—The Cases of Spain and Norway," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 943-968, April.
    17. Karen Benjamin Guzzo & Sarah R. Hayford, 2023. "Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(1), pages 7-42, March.
    18. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Isabella Buber-Ennser & Bernhard Riederer, 2021. "Didn’t Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 727-767, July.
    19. Ka U Ng, 2024. "Inheriting the Homeland? The Influence of Parental Origin-Country Fertility on Ideal Family Size and the Timing of Birth(s) Among the Children of Immigrants in France," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-23, April.
    20. Jolene Tan, 2024. "Beyond fertility figures: towards reproductive rights and choices," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-6, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:57:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-020-00929-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.