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Ranking handball teams from statistical strength estimation

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  • Florian Felice

    (University of Luxembourg)

Abstract

In this work, we present a methodology to estimate the strength of handball teams. We propose the use of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution to model the number of goals scored by a team as a flexible discrete distribution which can handle situations of non equi-dispersion. From its parameters, we derive a mathematical formula to determine the strength of a team. We propose a ranking based on the estimated strengths to compare teams across different championships. Applied to female handball club data from European competitions over the 2022/2023 season, we show that our new proposed ranking can have an echo in real sports events and is linked to recent results from European competitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Felice, 2025. "Ranking handball teams from statistical strength estimation," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 2183-2194, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:40:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s00180-024-01522-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00180-024-01522-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. J. Maher, 1982. "Modelling association football scores," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 36(3), pages 109-118, September.
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