Flood risk assessment and adaptation under changing climate for the agricultural system in the Ghanaian White Volta Basin

In the context of river basins, the threat of climate change has been extensively studied. However, many of these studies centred on hazard analysis while neglecting the need for comprehensive risk assessments that account for exposure and vulnerability. Hazard analysis alone is not adequate for making adaptive decisions. Thus, to effectively manage flood risk, it is essential to understand the elements that contribute to vulnerability and exposure in addition to hazard analysis. This study aims to assess flood risk (in space and time until the year 2100) for the agricultural system, in the White Volta Basin in northern Ghana. Employing the impact chain methodology, a mix of quantitative and qualitative data and techniques were used to assess hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Multi-model climate change data (RCP 8.5) from CORDEX and observation data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency were used for hazard analysis. Data on exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation were collected through structured interviews. Results indicate that flood hazard will increase by 79.1% with high spatial variability of wet periods but the flood risk of the catchment will increase by 19.3% by the end of the twenty-first century. The highest flood risk is found in the Upper East region, followed by North East, Northern, Savannah, and Upper West for all four analysed periods. Adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure factors are driven by poverty, ineffective institutional governance, and a lack of livelihood alternatives. We conclude that the region is highly susceptible and vulnerable to floods, and that shifting from isolated hazard analysis to a comprehensive assessment that considers exposure and vulnerability reveals the underlying root causes of the risk. Also, the impact chain is useful in generating insight into flood risk for policymakers and researchers. We recommend the need to enhance local capacity and foster social transformation in the region.