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Comparison of projected rice blast epidemics in the Korean Peninsula between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Kyoung-Tae Lee

    (Seoul National University)

  • Hye-Won Jeon

    (Integrated Watershed Management Institute)

  • Sook-Young Park

    (Sunchon National University)

  • Jaepil Cho

    (Integrated Watershed Management Institute)

  • Kwang-Hyung Kim

    (Seoul National University)

Abstract

Recently, the International Panel for Climate Change released the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate change scenarios with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The SSP scenarios result in significant changes to climate variables in climate projections compared to their predecessor, the representative concentration pathways from the CMIP5. Therefore, it is necessary to examine whether the CMIP6 scenarios differentially impact plant–disease ecosystems compared to the CMIP5 scenarios. In this study, we used the EPIRICE-LB model to simulate and compare projected rice blast disease epidemics in the Korean Peninsula using five selected family global climate models (GCMs) of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 for two forcing scenarios. We found a similar decrease in rice blast epidemics in both CMIP scenarios; however, this decrease was greater in the CMIP6 scenarios. In addition, distinctive epidemic trends were found in North Korea, where the rice blast epidemics increase until the mid-2040s but decrease thereafter until 2100, with different spatial patterns of varying magnitudes. Controlling devastating rice blast diseases will remain important during the next decades in North Korea, where appropriate chemical controls are unavailable due to chronic economic and political issues. Overall, our analyses using the new CMIP6 scenarios reemphasized the importance of developing effective control measures against rice blast for specific high-risk areas and the need for a universal impact and vulnerability assessment platform for plant–disease ecosystems that can be used with new climate change scenarios in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyoung-Tae Lee & Hye-Won Jeon & Sook-Young Park & Jaepil Cho & Kwang-Hyung Kim, 2022. "Comparison of projected rice blast epidemics in the Korean Peninsula between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:173:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03410-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03410-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kwang-Hyung Kim & Jaepil Cho, 2016. "Predicting potential epidemics of rice diseases in Korea using multi-model ensembles for assessment of climate change impacts with uncertainty information," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 327-339, January.
    2. K. Viswanath & P. Sinha & S. Naresh Kumar & Taru Sharma & Shalini Saxena & Shweta Panjwani & H. Pathak & Shalu Mishra Shukla, 2017. "Simulation of leaf blast infection in tropical rice agro-ecology under climate change scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 155-167, May.
    3. Lei Zhao & Keith Oleson & Elie Bou-Zeid & E. Scott Krayenhoff & Andrew Bray & Qing Zhu & Zhonghua Zheng & Chen Chen & Michael Oppenheimer, 2021. "Global multi-model projections of local urban climates," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(2), pages 152-157, February.
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