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A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change

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  • Matthew A. Thomas

    (Marquette University)

  • Ting Lin

    (Marquette University)

Abstract

Future thermosteric and dynamic sea-level changes are often projected by process-based climate models. Emulation of such computationally expensive models helps enable model intercomparison over a range of forcing scenarios and thus enables additional analysis of sea-level rise projection uncertainty. Current emulation methods use linear response functions to estimate global mean sea-level response. Here, we introduce a novel dual model to emulate global mean thermosteric sea-level rise that incorporates short- and long-term responses to climate forcing. This nonlinear response function outperforms existing linear response functions over six illustrative general circulation models and the four representative concentration pathways. To emulate dynamic sea-level projections, we introduce a linear pattern scaling model that relates regional sea-level changes to global mean thermosteric sea-level rise. Pattern scaling is shown to reproduce strongly forced sea-level trends. Our results demonstrate effective emulation of global and regional sea-level rise, which can facilitate the consideration of sea-level rise projection uncertainty critical to the analysis of sea-level rise hazard.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew A. Thomas & Ting Lin, 2018. "A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 311-324, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2198-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2198-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    2. Claudia Tebaldi & Julie Arblaster, 2014. "Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 459-471, February.
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