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European participatory scenario development: strengthening the link between stories and models

Author

Listed:
  • Kasper Kok
  • Ilona Bärlund
  • Martina Flörke
  • Ian Holman
  • Marc Gramberger
  • Jan Sendzimir
  • Benjamin Stuch
  • Katharina Zellmer

Abstract

Scenario development methods get to grips with taking a long-term view on complex issues such as climate change through involvement of stakeholders. Many of the recent (global) scenario exercises have been structured according to a Story-and-Simulation approach. Although elaborately studied, conceptual and practical issues remain in linking qualitative stories and quantitative models. In this paper, we show how stakeholders can directly estimate model parameter values using a three-step approach called Fuzzy Set Theory. We focus on the effect of multiple iterations between stories and models. Results show that we were successful in quickly delivering stakeholder-based quantification of key model parameters, with full consistency between linguistic terms used in stories and numeric values. Yet, values changed strongly from one iteration to the next. A minimum of two and preferably at least three iterations is needed to harmonise stories and models. We conclude that the application of Fuzzy Set Theory enabled a highly valuable, structured and reproducible process to increase consistency between stories and models, but that future work is needed to show its true potential, particularly related to the effect of iterations. Additionally, the number of tools that need to be applied in a short period of time to execute a Story-And-Simulation approach introduces drawbacks that need to be studied. However, an approach such as Story-And-Simulation is indispensable and effective in marrying the perspectives of scientists and other stakeholders when studying complex systems and complex problems. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Kasper Kok & Ilona Bärlund & Martina Flörke & Ian Holman & Marc Gramberger & Jan Sendzimir & Benjamin Stuch & Katharina Zellmer, 2015. "European participatory scenario development: strengthening the link between stories and models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 187-200, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:128:y:2015:i:3:p:187-200
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1143-y
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andersen, Per Dannemand & Hansen, Meiken & Selin, Cynthia, 2021. "Stakeholder inclusion in scenario planning—A review of European projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Wang, Jue & Aenis, Thomas & Hofmann-Souki, Susanne, 2018. "Triangulation in participation: Dynamic approaches for science-practice interaction in land-use decision making in rural China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 364-371.
    3. Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis & Lena Reimann & Gerald Jan Ellen & Gunnel Goransson & Gerben Koers & Lisa Van Well & Bente Vollstedt & Maureen Tsakiris & Amy Oen, 2024. "Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-19, March.
    4. Hagemann, N. & van der Zanden, E.H. & Willaarts, B.A. & Holzkämper, A. & Volk, M. & Rutz, C. & Priess, J.A. & Schönhart, M., 2020. "Bringing the sharing-sparing debate down to the ground—Lessons learnt for participatory scenario development," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Jianping Yang & Chunping Tan & Shijin Wang & Shengxia Wang & Yuan Yang & Hongju Chen, 2015. "Drought Adaptation in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China: Actions, Planning, Pathways and Barriers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-28, November.
    6. Karner, Katrin & Mitter, Hermine & Sinabell, Franz & Schönhart, Martin, 2024. "Participatory development of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Austria’s agriculture and food systems," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Anna Scolobig & Johan Lilliestam, 2016. "Comparing Approaches for the Integration of Stakeholder Perspectives in Environmental Decision Making," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-16, November.
    8. Sören Richter & Nora Szarka & Alberto Bezama & Daniela Thrän, 2022. "What Drives a Future German Bioeconomy? A Narrative and STEEPLE Analysis for Explorative Characterisation of Scenario Drivers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-32, March.
    9. Holman, I.P. & Brown, C & Janes, V & Sandars, D, 2017. "Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 126-135.
    10. Alejandro Díaz-Jara & Daniela Manuschevich & Aarón Grau & Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, 2024. "Land Management Drifted: Land Use Scenario Modeling of Trancura River Basin, Araucanía, Chile," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-35, January.

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