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Modeling dynamics of opinion formation in small groups: a framework capturing individual opinion adjustments

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  • Jaroslav Horáček

    (Charles University
    Prague University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

The manuscript extends previous research on experimentally supported agent-based models of opinion formation in groups. This study introduces the Opinion Shift Map, a novel tool for visualizing and quantifying individual responses to an advisor’s opinion based on the differences in both opinion and confidence. The goal is to integrate this tool into an agent-based model to better understand opinion dynamics in small groups. Through computer simulations, the influence of initial opinion and confidence distributions on opinion evolution is examined. Additionally, conditions under which a minority can persuade the majority, the role of confidence shifts, the impact of opinion update rates, and the influence of perceived distances between opinions and confidences are investigated. The findings highlight key factors shaping group consensus and offer insights into real-world opinion dynamics. Finally, the study evaluates the model’s strengths and limitations and suggests directions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaroslav Horáček, 2025. "Modeling dynamics of opinion formation in small groups: a framework capturing individual opinion adjustments," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 33(3), pages 729-756, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:33:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10100-025-00982-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10100-025-00982-z
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