IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/apjors/v8y2024i2d10.1007_s41685-024-00330-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding deforestation in the tropics: post-classification detection using machine learning and probing its driving forces in Katingan, Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Ramdhani

    (Ministry of Environmental and Forestry)

  • Bambang H. Trisasongko

    (Bogor Agricultural University
    Bogor Agricultural University)

  • Widiatmaka

    (Bogor Agricultural University)

Abstract

Increasing demands for agricultural lands and built-up areas, driven by rapid population growth in developing countries including Indonesia, exacerbates the strain on tropical forests. Therefore, crucial to regular maintenance of forest monitoring is necessary to support sustainable forest management and minimize deforestation. In addition, driving factors of deforestation need to be comprehended and serve as considerations in the development of policies and decision-making. The main objective was to provide an in-depth understanding of the phenomenon of deforestation and its underlying variables in tropical regions, with a case study of Katingan Regency, Indonesia. Machine learning for remote sensing data analysis was integrated to investigate multi-temporal land cover in scouting deforestation and its driving factors. We found that the performance of random forests (RF) in all experimental settings was generally superior to support vector machines (SVM), achieving the best overall accuracy of 0.95. Land cover change analysis in the Katingan Regency (covering 2.04 M ha) suggested total deforestation during 2004−2022 of approximately 247.108 ha, an average of almost 14 thousand ha per year. Logistic regression showed that selected predictors significantly influenced the occurrence of deforestation. Non-forest areas devised a greater likelihood of deforestation than designated forest areas. Protected areas acted as an agent to minimize and impede regional deforestation. Meanwhile the probability of deforestation was greater on the outside of forest concession areas. We conclude that efforts to prevent deforestation need to be elevated, particularly in open-access production forests, characterized by high accessibility. In addition, the protection of the remaining forests, especially in non-forest designated areas, needs to be accommodated in regional spatial planning policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramdhani & Bambang H. Trisasongko & Widiatmaka, 2024. "Understanding deforestation in the tropics: post-classification detection using machine learning and probing its driving forces in Katingan, Indonesia," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 493-521, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:8:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s41685-024-00330-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00330-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41685-024-00330-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41685-024-00330-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lila Juniyanti & Herry Purnomo & Hariadi Kartodihardjo & Lilik Budi Prasetyo, 2021. "Understanding the Driving Forces and Actors of Land Change Due to Forestry and Agricultural Practices in Sumatra and Kalimantan: A Systematic Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-24, April.
    2. Wenseslao Plata-Rocha & Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta & Carlos Eduardo Pacheco-Angulo & Jesus Gabriel Rangel-Peraza & Cuauhtemoc Franco-Ochoa & Zuriel Dathan Mora-Felix, 2021. "Proximate and Underlying Deforestation Causes in a Tropical Basin through Specialized Consultation and Spatial Logistic Regression Modeling," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Luke Gibson & Tien Ming Lee & Lian Pin Koh & Barry W. Brook & Toby A. Gardner & Jos Barlow & Carlos A. Peres & Corey J. A. Bradshaw & William F. Laurance & Thomas E. Lovejoy & Navjot S. Sodhi, 2011. "Primary forests are irreplaceable for sustaining tropical biodiversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 478(7369), pages 378-381, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qingqian He & Qing Meng & William Flatley & Yaqian He, 2022. "Examining the Effects of Agricultural Aid on Forests in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Causal Analysis Based on Remotely Sensed Data of Sierra Leone," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Wen-Yong Guo & Josep M. Serra-Diaz & Wolf L. Eiserhardt & Brian S. Maitner & Cory Merow & Cyrille Violle & Matthew J. Pound & Miao Sun & Ferry Slik & Anne Blach-Overgaard & Brian J. Enquist & Jens-Chr, 2023. "Climate change and land use threaten global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Bernard W T Coetzee & Kevin J Gaston & Steven L Chown, 2014. "Local Scale Comparisons of Biodiversity as a Test for Global Protected Area Ecological Performance: A Meta-Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-11, August.
    4. Schwabe, Kurt A & Carson, Richard T & DeShazo, JR & Potts, Matthew D & Reese, Ashley N & Vincent, Jeffrey R, 2015. "Creation of Malaysia’s Royal Belum State Park: A Case Study of Conservation in a Developing Country," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9tf2j26s, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    5. Huang, Wei, 2019. "Forest condition change, tenure reform, and government-funded eco-environmental programs in Northeast China," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 67-74.
    6. Coomes, Oliver T. & Cheng, Yuanyu & Takasaki, Yoshito & Abizaid, Christian, 2021. "What drives clearing of old-growth forest over secondary forests in tropical shifting cultivation systems? Evidence from the Peruvian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    7. I Wayan Susi Dharmawan & Nur M. Heriyanto & Raden Garsetiasih & Rozza Tri Kwatrina & Reny Sawitri & Denny & Titiek Setyawati & Pratiwi & Budi Hadi Narendra & Chairil Anwar Siregar & Ilham Kurnia Abywi, 2024. "The Dynamics of Vegetation Structure, Composition and Carbon Stock in Peatland Ecosystem of Old Secondary Forest in Riau and South Sumatra Provinces," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-22, May.
    8. Blackman, Allen, 2015. "Strict versus mixed-use protected areas: Guatemala's Maya Biosphere Reserve," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 14-24.
    9. Yanchao Feng, 2023. "Inducement factor of talent agglomeration in the manufacturing industrial sector: A survey on the readiness of Industry 4.0 adoption," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(10), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Ullah, S M Asik & Tani, Masakazu & Tsuchiya, Jun & Rahman, M.Abiar & Moriyama, Masao, 2022. "Impact of protected areas and co-management on forest cover: A case study from Teknaf Wildlife Sanctuary, Bangladesh," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Fabrício Otávio do Nascimento Pereira & Graciliano Galdino Alves dos Santos & Anderson Borges Serra & Cleuton Lima Miranda & Guilherme da Silva Araújo & Emil José Hernández Ruz, 2023. "Composition of the Anuran Community in a Forest Management Area in Southeastern Amazonia," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-13, July.
    12. Serge Mandiefe Piabuo & Peter A. Minang & Chupezi Julius Tieguhong & Divine Foundjem-Tita & Frankline Nghobuoche, 2021. "Illegal logging, governance effectiveness and carbon dioxide emission in the timber-producing countries of Congo Basin and Asia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14176-14196, October.
    13. Nadège Cizungu Cirezi & Jean-François Bastin & Yannick Mugumaarhahama & Yannick Sikuzani Useni & Katcho Karume & Raymond Sinsi Lumbuenamo & Jan Bogaert, 2024. "Analyzing Drivers of Tropical Moist Forest Dynamics in the Kahuzi-Biega National Park Landscape, Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo from 1990 to 2022," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22, December.
    14. Vasiliev, Denis & Hazlett, Richard W., 2025. "Envisaging nature-based solutions as designed ecosystems in the changing world," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Jinfeng Wang & Ya Li & Sheng Wang & Qing Li & Lingfeng Li & Xiaoling Liu, 2023. "Assessment of Multiple Ecosystem Services and Ecological Security Pattern in Shanxi Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Robert Beyer & Tim Rademacher, 2021. "Species Richness and Carbon Footprints of Vegetable Oils: Can High Yields Outweigh Palm Oil’s Environmental Impact?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-10, February.
    17. Matias Heino & Matti Kummu & Marika Makkonen & Mark Mulligan & Peter H Verburg & Mika Jalava & Timo A Räsänen, 2015. "Forest Loss in Protected Areas and Intact Forest Landscapes: A Global Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-21, October.
    18. Erbaugh, James & Bierbaum, Rosina & Castilleja, Guillermo & da Fonseca, Gustavo A.B. & Hansen, Steffen Cole Brandstrup, 2019. "Toward sustainable agriculture in the tropics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 158-162.
    19. Juan José Cadillo-Benalcazar & José Carlos Silva-Macher & Norma Salinas, 2024. "Applying the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) to characterize the society–agriculture–forest system: the case of Huayopata, Cuzco (Peru)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(12), pages 29839-29862, December.
    20. Silvina M. Manrique & Judith Franco, 2020. "Tree cover increase mitigation strategy: implications of the “replacement approach” in carbon storage of a subtropical ecosystem," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 1481-1508, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:8:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s41685-024-00330-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.