IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/scn/025886/15740173.html

Оценивание Равновесного Реального Обменного Курса Российского Рубля

Author

Listed:
  • Сосунов К. А.
  • Шумилов А. В.

Abstract

Используя методологический подход, предложенный Эдвардсом [4], в данной работе мы оцениваем равновесный реальный обменный курс российского рубля за период с начала 1995 г. до конца 2003 г. Согласно теоретической модели, равновесный обменный курс связан функциональной зависимостью (уравнение «сокращенной формы») с набором экзогенных переменных, называемых «фундаментальными». Для получения оценки равновесного обменного курса мы определяем набор фундаментальных переменных (условия торговли, производительность в секторе неторгуемых товаров, потоки капитала) и оцениваем уравнение «сокращенной формы», используя коинтеграционный тест Йохансена. Исследуются также скорость сходимости реального обменного курса к равновесному и влияние переменных монетарной и фискальной политики на краткосрочную динамику реального курса.

Suggested Citation

  • Сосунов К. А. & Шумилов А. В., 2005. "Оценивание Равновесного Реального Обменного Курса Российского Рубля," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 9(2), pages 216-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:025886:15740173
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/otsenivanie-ravnovesnogo-realnogo-obmennogo-kursa-rossiyskogo-rublya
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:rnp:ppaper:mak13 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yana Valeryevna Dyomina, 2014. "Balance of Payments of East Asian Countries: Impact of the Coordinated Monetary Policy," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 1, pages 138-152.
    3. Pavel Trunin & Dmitriy Kniazev & Ekaterina Kuduykina, 2010. "Perspective issues in the CBR`s exchange rate policy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 144P.
    4. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Fokin, Nikita (Фокин, Никита), 2018. "Testing the Asymmetric Convergence of the Real Exchange Rate to Equilibrium During the Managed Ruble Exchange Rate Regime [Тестирование Ассиметричной Сходимости Реального Обменного Курса К Равновес," Working Papers 021808, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    5. Nikita D. Fokin & Ekaterina V. Malikova & Andrey V. Polbin, 2024. "Time-varying parameters error correction model for real ruble exchange rate and oil prices: What has changed due to capital control and sanctions?," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 10(1), pages 20-33, March.
    6. Andrey Feliksovich Bedin & Alexander Vladimirovich Kulikov & Andrey Vladimirovich Polbin, 2021. "A Markov Switching VECM Model for Russian Real GDP, Real Exchange Rate and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 402-412.
    7. Shumilov, Andrei, 2019. "Модели Зависимости Реального Курса Рубля От Цены И Стоимости Экспорта Нефти: Сравнительный Анализ [Oil prices versus oil export revenues as fundamental factors of the real Russian ruble exchange ra," MPRA Paper 96400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. A. Polbin., 2017. "Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    9. Skrobotov, Anton A. (Скроботов, Антон) & Fokin, Nikita D. (Фокин, Никита), 2018. "Testing Asymmetric Convergence of the Real Exchange Rate to Equilibrium During Ruble Exchange Rate Targeting [Тестирование Асимметричной Сходимости Реального Обменного Курса К Равновесному Во Время," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 132-147, June.
    10. Polbin, Andrey, 2017. "Моделирование Реального Курса Рубля В Условиях Изменения Режима Денежно-Кредитной Политики [Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change]," MPRA Paper 78139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Lomonosov, Daniil & Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Влияние Шоков Мировой Деловой Активности, Предложения Нефти И Спекулятивных Нефтяных Шоков На Экономику Рф [The impact of global economic activity, oil supply and speculative oil shocks on the Russ," MPRA Paper 106019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. A. Polbin, 2017. "Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policyregime change," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    13. Sosunov, K. & Ushakov, N., 2009. "Determination of the Real Exchange Rate of the Ruble and Assessment of Long-Run Policy of Real Exchange Rate Targeting," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 3-4, pages 97-121.
    14. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei & Bedin, Andrey & Kulikov, Alexander, 2019. "Модель Реального Обменного Курса Рубля С Марковскими Переключениями Режимов [Modeling real exchange rate of the Russian ruble using Markov regime-switching approach]," MPRA Paper 93310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. A. V. Bozhechkova & S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev & P. V. Trunin, 2020. "Factors of the Russian ruble exchange rate dynamics in the 2000s and 2010s," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 8.
    16. repec:rnp:ppaper:mn11 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Andrey Polbin & Andrei Shumilov & Andrei Bedin & Alexander Kulikov, 2019. "Modeling real exchange rate of the Russian ruble using Markov regime switching approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 32-50.
    18. Andrey Polbin & Daniil Lomonosov, 2021. "The Impact of Global Economic Activity, Oil Supply and Speculative Oil Shocks on the Russian Economy," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 227-262.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scn:025886:15740173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CyberLeninka (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://cyberleninka.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.