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The tourism area life cycle hypothesis: A micro-foundation

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  • Simone Marsiglio
  • Marco Tolotti

Abstract

We provide a simple micro-foundation of the tourism area life cycle hypothesis, based on tourists’ utility maximization. As a result of social interactions among tourists which determine destinations popularity, the market share of visitors which decides to visit a specific destination follows a logistic dynamics, consistent with what predicted by the tourism area life cycle hypothesis. We show that different preference drivers explain the duration of the different tourism area life cycle stages: the net benefit from visiting the destination characterizes the exploration, involvement, and development phases, while social effects associated with destination popularity characterize the phases of consolidation and stagnation Different from previous studies our results hold true independently of whether we focus on the repeating or non-repeating segment of the tourism market. We also provide a calibration of our model to the case of the city of Venice (Italy) showing that it performs well in capturing the evolution of tourism in the historical center of the city over the last 60 years, suggesting that TALC-like dynamics may occur even in the context of cultural and heritage destinations.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Marsiglio & Marco Tolotti, 2024. "The tourism area life cycle hypothesis: A micro-foundation," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(2), pages 345-360, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:30:y:2024:i:2:p:345-360
    DOI: 10.1177/13548166221138645
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rinaldo Brau & A. Lanza & F. Pigliaru, 2006. "How fast are small tourist countries growing? The 1980-2003 evidence," Working Paper CRENoS 200614, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    2. Brau, Rinaldo & Lanza, Alessandro & Pigliaru, Francesco, 2007. "How Fast are Small Tourism Countries Growing? Evidence from the Data for 1980–2003," MPRA Paper 82776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2001. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(2), pages 235-260.
    4. Simone Marsiglio, 2017. "On the carrying capacity and the optimal number of visitors in tourism destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 632-646, May.
    5. Lawrence Blume & Steven Durlauf, 2003. "Equilibrium Concepts for Social Interaction Models," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 193-209.
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    7. Rinaldo Brau & Alessandro Lanza & Francesco Pigliaru, 2007. "How Fast are Small Tourism Countries Growing? Evidence from the Data for 1980–2003," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(4), pages 603-613, December.
    8. Simone Marsiglio, 2015. "Economic Growth and Environment: Tourism as a Trigger for Green Growth," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(1), pages 183-204, February.
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