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Research Note: Forecasting Film-Induced Tourism — The Dolphin Tale Case

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  • Maria Luisa Cortón
  • Maling Ebrahimpour

Abstract

Dolphin Tale is a major motion picture released by Warner Brothers in 2011. The authors forecast the number of visitors to the film location, including the film-induced tourism effect originated by Dolphin Tale. They use intervention analysis to measure this effect, with the pre-film series forecasted trend as the comparison baseline instead of the usual linear trend. They address the proper modelling of the series seasonality in the presence of an abrupt increase in visitors immediately after the premiere and a lack of data on the subsequent months. They find that the film induced a 51% increase in the mean level of visitors to the location.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Luisa Cortón & Maling Ebrahimpour, 2014. "Research Note: Forecasting Film-Induced Tourism — The Dolphin Tale Case," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(6), pages 1349-1356, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:20:y:2014:i:6:p:1349-1356
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2013.0339
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kulendran, N. & King, Maxwell L., 1997. "Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error-correction and time-series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 319-327, September.
    2. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    3. Song, Haiyan & Li, Gang & Witt, Stephen F. & Athanasopoulos, George, 2011. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using time-varying parameter structural time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 855-869.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giulia Contu & Sara Pau, 2022. "The impact of TV series on tourism performance: the case of Game of Thrones," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 3313-3341, December.
    2. Sara Nunes & Samiha Chemli & Alejandro del Moral Agúndez & Kang Jin Seo & Julia Fragoso da Fonseca, 2022. "Descriptive Analysis of the Recent Advances of Film-Induced Tourism: Identification of Strengths, Gaps and Opportunities," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 15(2), pages 233-247.

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