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An Examination of Tourist Arrivals Dynamics Using Short-Term Time Series Data: A Space—Time Cluster Approach

Author

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  • Dogan Gursoy

    (School of Hospitality Business Management, Washington State University, 340G Todd Hall, PO Box 644736, Pullman, WA 99164–4736, USA)

  • Anna Maria Parroco

    (Department of Psychology, University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze ed. 15, 90128 Palermo, Italy)

  • Raffaele Scuderi

    (Competence Centre in Tourism Management and Tourism Economics (TOMTE), School of Economics and Management, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Universitätsplatz 1 – piazza Università 1, 39100 Bozen-Bolzano, Italy)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the development of Italian tourist areas ( circoscrizioni turistiche ) through a cluster analysis of short time series. The technique is an adaptation of the functional data analysis approach developed by Abraham et al (2003), which combines spline interpolation with k -means clustering. The findings indicate the presence of two patterns (increasing and stable) averagely characterizing groups of territories. Moreover, tests of spatial contiguity suggest the presence of ‘space–time clusters’; that is, areas in the same ‘time cluster’ are also spatially contiguous. These findings appear to be more robust in particular for those series characterized by an increasing trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Dogan Gursoy & Anna Maria Parroco & Raffaele Scuderi, 2013. "An Examination of Tourist Arrivals Dynamics Using Short-Term Time Series Data: A Space—Time Cluster Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(4), pages 761-777, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:19:y:2013:i:4:p:761-777
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2013.0318
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daria Mendola & Raffaele Scuderi & Valerio Lacagnina, 2013. "Defining and measuring the development of a country over time: a proposal of a new index," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2473-2494, August.
    2. Mark Chiang & Boris Mirkin, 2010. "Intelligent Choice of the Number of Clusters in K-Means Clustering: An Experimental Study with Different Cluster Spreads," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 27(1), pages 3-40, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Magrini, 2022. "Assessment of agricultural sustainability in European Union countries: a group-based multivariate trajectory approach," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(4), pages 673-703, December.
    2. Enrico Conti & Laura Grassini & Catia Monicolini, 2020. "Tourism competitiveness of Italian municipalities," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(5), pages 1745-1767, December.

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