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An efficient discretization scheme for a dynamic Bayesian network in structural reliability analysis

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  • Hongseok Kim
  • Dooyoul Lee

Abstract

Using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to estimate the failure risk of a component or system that deteriorates with time has several advantages. A DBN discretizes the probability distribution of variables and thereby increases the efficiency of computing resources and reduces computation time. However, it is important to devise an optimal discretization scheme because the size of the model grows exponentially as the number of discretized intervals increases. In this paper, we propose an optimal discretization scheme for a DBN used to model the time-varying deterioration of a turbine blade component. The results of estimating the reliability indices with the DBN were verified by comparing them with the results of a Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, compared with a log-transformed discretization method, our DBN discretization method shows a significantly increased computation speed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongseok Kim & Dooyoul Lee, 2024. "An efficient discretization scheme for a dynamic Bayesian network in structural reliability analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 238(4), pages 728-739, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:238:y:2024:i:4:p:728-739
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X231182223
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zwirglmaier, Kilian & Straub, Daniel, 2016. "A discretization procedure for rare events in Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 96-109.
    2. Zhu, Jiandao & Collette, Matthew, 2015. "A dynamic discretization method for reliability inference in Dynamic Bayesian Networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 242-252.
    3. Lee, Dooyoul & Kwon, Kybeom, 2023. "Dynamic Bayesian network model for comprehensive risk analysis of fatigue-critical structural details," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
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