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The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

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Abstract

The economy will grow 2 per cent in 2016 before slowing to 1.4 per cent in 2017: with the triggering of Article 50 there are downside risks to next year's outlook. Consumer price inflation will accelerate, peaking at around 4 per cent in the second half of 2017, and this will impact on real disposable income The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to look through this near-term inflation and hold Bank Rate at ¼ per cent until 2019. Sterling is expected to remain at around $1.22 and €1.11 this year and next.

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  • N/A, 2016. "The UK Economy: Forecast Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 238(1), pages 3-3, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:238:y:2016:i:1:p:f3-f3
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    2. Timo Dimitriadis & Andrew J. Patton & Patrick W. Schmidt, 2019. "Testing Forecast Rationality for Measures of Central Tendency," Papers 1910.12545, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    3. Gergely Akos Ganics, 2017. "Optimal density forecast combinations," Working Papers 1751, Banco de España.
    4. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Barrow, Devon & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2019. "Another look at forecast selection and combination: Evidence from forecast pooling," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 226-235.
    5. Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2020. "Forecasting GDP Growth from Outer Space," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 697-722, August.
    6. Dewenter, Ralf & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2016. "Predicting advertising volumes: A structural time series approach," DICE Discussion Papers 228, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    7. Buncic, Daniel & Tischhauser, Martin, 2017. "Macroeconomic factors and equity premium predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 621-644.
    8. Ralf Dewenter & Ulrich Heimeshoff, 2017. "Predicting Advertising Volumes Using Structural Time Series Models: A Case Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1644-1652.
    9. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    10. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability in emerging markets: Fundamentals versus technical analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-263.
    11. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.

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