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The World Economy: Forecast Summary

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Abstract

Our forecast of world output growth this year is unchanged at 3.0 per cent – the slowest annual growth rate since the 2009 recession. World growth is expected to strengthen to 3.2 per cent next year and 3.6 per cent in 2018, but to remain slower than before the global financial crisis. Downside risks to the forecast include economic downturns in the advanced economies that central banks may lack ammunition to counter, as well as financial instability as a result of low and negative interest rates. These point to a need for more balanced policies to promote expansion, with fiscal policy playing a greater role. With trade growth in recent years already reduced to half its pre-crisis rate, action to resist protectionist pressure and to promote further progress with international economic integration is vital.

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  • N/A, 2016. "The World Economy: Forecast Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 238(1), pages 2-2, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:238:y:2016:i:1:p:f2-f2
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    Cited by:

    1. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019. "Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 638-657.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 59-86, Spring.
    3. Timo Dimitriadis & Andrew J. Patton & Patrick W. Schmidt, 2019. "Testing Forecast Rationality for Measures of Central Tendency," Papers 1910.12545, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    4. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    5. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    6. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Barrow, Devon & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2019. "Another look at forecast selection and combination: Evidence from forecast pooling," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 226-235.
    7. Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2020. "Forecasting GDP Growth from Outer Space," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 697-722, August.
    8. Dewenter, Ralf & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2016. "Predicting advertising volumes: A structural time series approach," DICE Discussion Papers 228, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    9. Buncic, Daniel & Tischhauser, Martin, 2017. "Macroeconomic factors and equity premium predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 621-644.
    10. Thierry Cohignac & Nabil Kazi-Tani, 2019. "Quantile Mixing and Model Uncertainty Measures," Working Papers hal-02405859, HAL.
    11. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability in emerging markets: Fundamentals versus technical analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-263.
    12. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.

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