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Up and Down the Generational Income Ladder in Britain: Past Changes and Future Prospects

Author

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  • Jo Blanden

    (Department of Economics, University of Surrey and Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, J.Blanden@surrey.ac.uk)

  • Stephen Machin

    (Department of Economics, University College London and Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, s.machin@ucl.ac.uk)

Abstract

This article seeks evidence on trends in intergenerational income for cohorts born after 1970. As many of these cohorts have not yet joined the labour market, we must look at relationships between intermediate outcomes (degree attainment, test scores and non-cognitive abilities) and parental income to forecast forward from these to estimates of intergenerational earnings correlations. We find no evidence that the relationship between these intermediate outcomes and parental income have changed for more recent cohorts. Evidence from the earlier 1958 and 1970 cohorts shows that as mobility declined in the past the relationship between intermediate outcomes and parental income strengthened. We therefore conclude that, under realistic assumptions and in the absence of any significant unanticipated changes, the decline in intergenerational mobility that occurred between 1958 and 1970 birth cohorts is unlikely to continue for cohorts born from 1970 to 2000. Mobility is therefore likely to remain at or near the relatively low level observed for the 1970 birth cohort.

Suggested Citation

  • Jo Blanden & Stephen Machin, 2008. "Up and Down the Generational Income Ladder in Britain: Past Changes and Future Prospects," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 205(1), pages 101-116, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:205:y:2008:i:1:p:101-116
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucia Rizzica, 2018. "Raising aspirations and higher education: evidence from the UK’s Widening Participation policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1188, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Jantti, Markus & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2013. "Income mobility," ISER Working Paper Series 2013-23, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Lorraine Dearden & Emla Fitzsimons & Gill Wyness, 2011. "The impact of tuition fees and support on university participation in the UK," IFS Working Papers W11/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Brian Bell & Jack Blundell & Stephen Machin, 2018. "The Changing Geography of Intergenerational Mobility," CEP Discussion Papers dp1591, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. McNally, Sandra, 2010. "Evaluating education policies: the evidence from economic research," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57973, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Brian Bell & Jack Blundell & Stephen Machin, 2018. "The Changing Geography of Intergenerational Mobility," CEP Discussion Papers dp1591, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    intergenerational mobility; children;

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