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The Effect of Individual Movements and Interventions on the Spread of Influenza in Long-Term Care Facilities

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  • Mehdi Najafi
  • Marek Laskowski
  • Pieter T. de Boer
  • Evelyn Williams
  • Ayman Chit
  • Seyed M. Moghadas

Abstract

Background. Nosocomial influenza poses a serious risk among residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Objective. We sought to evaluate the effect of resident and staff movements and contact patterns on the outcomes of various intervention strategies for influenza control in an LTCF. Methods. We collected contact frequency data in Canada’s largest veterans’ LTCF by enroling residents and staff into a study that tracked their movements through wireless tags and signal receivers. We analyzed and fitted the data to an agent-based simulation model of influenza infection, and performed Monte-Carlo simulations to evaluate the benefit of antiviral prophylaxis and patient isolation added to standard (baseline) infection control practice (i.e., vaccination of residents and staff, plus antiviral treatment of residents with symptomatic infection). Results. We calibrated the model to attack rates of 20%, 40%, and 60% for the baseline scenario. For data-driven movements, we found that the largest reduction in attack rates (12.5% to 27%; ANOVA P 0.2) among residents. In contrast, parameterizing the model with random movements yielded different results, suggesting that the highest benefit was achieved through patient isolation (69.6% to 79.6%; ANOVA P

Suggested Citation

  • Mehdi Najafi & Marek Laskowski & Pieter T. de Boer & Evelyn Williams & Ayman Chit & Seyed M. Moghadas, 2017. "The Effect of Individual Movements and Interventions on the Spread of Influenza in Long-Term Care Facilities," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 37(8), pages 871-881, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:37:y:2017:i:8:p:871-881
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X17708564
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yang Yang & Ira M. Longini & M. Elizabeth Halloran, 2006. "Design and evaluation of prophylactic interventions using infectious disease incidence data from close contact groups," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(3), pages 317-330, May.
    2. Sean Barnes & Bruce Golden & Edward Wasil, 2010. "MRSA Transmission Reduction Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 22(4), pages 635-646, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Asgary & Hudson Blue & Adriano O. Solis & Zachary McCarthy & Mahdi Najafabadi & Mohammad Ali Tofighi & Jianhong Wu, 2022. "Modeling COVID-19 Outbreaks in Long-Term Care Facilities Using an Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-16, February.

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