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Design and evaluation of prophylactic interventions using infectious disease incidence data from close contact groups

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  • Yang Yang
  • Ira M. Longini
  • M. Elizabeth Halloran

Abstract

Summary. Prophylaxis of contacts of infectious cases such as household members and treatment of infectious cases are methods to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. We develop a method based on maximum likelihood to estimate the efficacy of such interventions and the transmission probabilities. We consider both the design with prospective follow‐up of close contact groups and the design with ascertainment of close contact groups by an index case as well as randomization by groups and by individuals. We compare the designs by using simulations. We estimate the efficacy of the influenza antiviral agent oseltamivir in reducing susceptibility and infectiousness in two case‐ascertained household trials.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Yang & Ira M. Longini & M. Elizabeth Halloran, 2006. "Design and evaluation of prophylactic interventions using infectious disease incidence data from close contact groups," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(3), pages 317-330, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:55:y:2006:i:3:p:317-330
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00539.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Peng Sun & Liu Yang & Francis de Véricourt, 2009. "Selfish Drug Allocation for Containing an International Influenza Pandemic at the Onset," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(6), pages 1320-1332, December.
    2. Aaron T. Porter & Jacob J. Oleson, 2013. "A Path-Specific SEIR Model for use with General Latent and Infectious Time Distributions," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 101-108, March.
    3. Cai Xiaoxuan & Loh Wen Wei & Crawford Forrest W., 2021. "Identification of causal intervention effects under contagion," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 9-38, January.
    4. George J Milne & Nilimesh Halder & Joel K Kelso, 2013. "The Cost Effectiveness of Pandemic Influenza Interventions: A Pandemic Severity Based Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Eunha Shim & Gretchen B. Chapman & Alison P. Galvani, 2010. "Decision Making with Regard to Antiviral Intervention during an Influenza Pandemic," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 30(4), pages 64-81, July.
    6. Yang, Yang & Longini Jr., Ira M. & Elizabeth Halloran, M., 2007. "A data-augmentation method for infectious disease incidence data from close contact groups," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(12), pages 6582-6595, August.
    7. Mehdi Najafi & Marek Laskowski & Pieter T. de Boer & Evelyn Williams & Ayman Chit & Seyed M. Moghadas, 2017. "The Effect of Individual Movements and Interventions on the Spread of Influenza in Long-Term Care Facilities," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 37(8), pages 871-881, November.

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