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The Immediate and Lingering Effects of Armed Conflict on Adult Mortality: A Time-Series Cross-National Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Quan Li

    (Department of Political Science, Pennsylvania State University, quanli@psu.edu)

  • Ming Wen

    (Department of Sociology, University of Utah, ming.wen@soc.utah.edu)

Abstract

This research investigates the effect of armed conflict on adult mortality across countries and over time. Theoretical mechanisms are specified for how military violence influences adult mortality, both immediately and over time after conflict. The effects of aggregate conflict, interstate and intrastate conflicts, and conflict severity are explored. The Heckman selection model is applied to account for the conflict-induced missing data problem. A pooled analysis across 84 countries for the period from 1961 to 1998 provides broad empirical support for the proposed theoretical expectations across both genders. This study confirms the importance of both the immediate and the lingering effect of military conflict on the mortality of the working-age population. The immediate effect of civil conflict is much stronger than that of the interstate conflict, while the reverse applies to the lingering effect. Both the immediate and the lingering effects of severe conflict are much stronger than those of minor conflict. While men tend to suffer higher mortality immediately from intrastate conflict and severe conflict, women in the long run experience as much mortality owing to the lingering effects of these conflicts. The mortality data show a strong data selection bias caused by military conflict. The research findings highlight the imperative for negotiating peace. Preventing a contest from escalating into a severe conflict can produce noticeable gains in saved human lives.

Suggested Citation

  • Quan Li & Ming Wen, 2005. "The Immediate and Lingering Effects of Armed Conflict on Adult Mortality: A Time-Series Cross-National Analysis," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 42(4), pages 471-492, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:42:y:2005:i:4:p:471-492
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    Cited by:

    1. Olaf J. de Groot & Tilman Brück & Carlos Bozzoli, 2009. "How Many Bucks in a Bang: On the Estimation of the Economic Costs of Conflict," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 948, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Is the political system really related to health?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 36-46, July.
    3. Berrang-Ford, Lea & Lundine, Jamie & Breau, Sebastien, 2011. "Conflict and human African trypanosomiasis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 398-407, February.
    4. Kim, Namsuk & Sauter, Melanie, 2017. "Is conflict additional structural obstacle for Least Developed Countries?," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 32-48.
    5. Stephen Smith, 2016. "The Two Fragilities: Vulnerability to Conflict,Environmental Stress, and Their Interactions as Challenges to Ending Poverty," Working Papers 2016-1, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. He Yin & Van Butsic & Johanna Buchner & Tobias Kuemmerle & Alexander V. Prishchepov & Matthias Baumann & Eugenia V. Bragina & Hovik Sayadyan & Volker C. Radeloff, 2019. "Agricultural abandonment and recultivation during and after the Chechen Wars in the northern Caucasus," HiCN Working Papers 294, Households in Conflict Network.
    7. Anton Parlow, 2016. "State and Development: Child Mortality and the War on Terror: Afghanistan from 2007 to 2010," HiCN Working Papers 220, Households in Conflict Network.
    8. Henrik Urdal & Chi Primus Che, 2013. "War and Gender Inequalities in Health: The Impact of Armed Conflict on Fertility and Maternal Mortality," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 489-510, September.
    9. Gudrun Østby & Henrik Urdal & Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Andreas Kotsadam & Ragnhild Belbo & Christin Ormhaug, 2018. "Organized Violence and Institutional Child Delivery: Micro-Level Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, 1989–2014," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1295-1316, August.
    10. Berry, Isha & Berrang-Ford, Lea, 2016. "Leishmaniasis, conflict, and political terror: A spatio-temporal analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 140-149.

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