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The Impact of Domestic Surveillance on Political Imprisonment: Evidence from the German Democratic Republic

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  • Christoph Valentin Steinert

Abstract

How does domestic surveillance affect the frequency of political imprisonments in autocratic states? In contrast to conventional wisdom, I argue that surveillance reduces the frequency of political imprisonments in power-maximizing autocracies. Surveillance decreases uncertainty about the correct targets of repression, allowing for more selective detentions and shifts to silent instruments of repression. To investigate these claims, I draw on a unique county-level dataset of political imprisonment in the German Democratic Republic between 1984 and 1988. I proxy the number of monitored individuals with newly collected county-level data on surveillance operations. I use ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, random effects, and instrumental variable models to investigate the impact of surveillance on political imprisonment. I find that higher shares of spies per monitored individual were associated with a reduction of political imprisonment. Further, increasing levels of spy infiltration were linked to a systematic shift to silent instruments of repression.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Valentin Steinert, 2023. "The Impact of Domestic Surveillance on Political Imprisonment: Evidence from the German Democratic Republic," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(1), pages 38-65, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:1:p:38-65
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027221109797
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    1. Lyall, Jason, 2010. "Are Coethnics More Effective Counterinsurgents? Evidence from the Second Chechen War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 1-20, February.
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