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Two Models for Multiregional Population Dynamics

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  • G Feeney

    (East-West Population Institute, The East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822)

Abstract

A general linear demographic model is derived which subsumes a wide variety of previously proposed population models. The general model includes in particular the linear model of interregional population growth and distribution developed by Rogers and others. One feature of this model is criticized, the allocation of outmigrants from any region in constant proportions among possible destination regions. Insofar as persons migrate to economic opportunities, outmigrants will distribute themselves among regions in proportion to these opportunities. Insofar as the economy of a region services its population, opportunities will vary directly with population. This suggests the introduction of a new model which allows for the variable allocation of outmigrants from each region according to the distribution of population among possible destination regions. Such a model is proposed, and it turns out to be nonlinear. The linear and nonlinear models are compared by applying them to the analysis of migration between three regions of the United States during 1955–1960. In the course of developing the new model, a set of interregional migration statistics is defined which eliminates the imperfect duality between interregional in- and out-migration rates.

Suggested Citation

  • G Feeney, 1973. "Two Models for Multiregional Population Dynamics," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 5(1), pages 31-43, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:5:y:1973:i:1:p:31-43
    DOI: 10.1068/a050031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Tarver & William Gurley, 1965. "A Stochastic analysis of geographic mobility and population projections of the census divisions in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 2(1), pages 134-139, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tom Wilson, 2016. "Evaluation of Alternative Cohort-Component Models for Local Area Population Forecasts," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(2), pages 241-261, April.
    2. Peter Mueser, 1989. "Measuring the impact of locational characteristics on migration: Interpreting cross-sectional analyses," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(3), pages 499-513, August.
    3. John Stillwell, 2005. "Inter-regional migration modelling - a review and assessment," ERSA conference papers ersa05p770, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Patrice Dion, 2017. "An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(6), pages 871-901, December.

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