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Evaluating the No Cold Calling Zones in Peterborough, England: Application of a Novel Statistical Method for Evaluating Neighbourhood Policing Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Guangquan Li

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College, London, England and MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College, London W2 1PG, England)

  • Robert Haining

    (Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Site, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England)

  • Sylvia Richardson

    (MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR, England)

  • Nicky Best

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College, London, England and MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College, London W2 1PG, England)

Abstract

Some police forces in the UK institute ‘No Cold Calling’ (NCC) zones to reduce cold callings (unsolicited visits to sell products or services), which are often associated with rogue trading and distraction burglary. This paper evaluates the NCC-targeted areas chosen in 2005–06 in Peterborough and reports whether they experienced a measurable impact on their burglary rates in the period up to 2008. Time-series data for burglary at the census output area level are analysed using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to address issues of data sparsity and lack of randomised allocation of areas to treatment groups that are often encountered in small-area quantitative policy evaluation. To ensure internal validity, we employ the interrupted time-series quasi-experimental design embedded within a matched case-control framework. Results reveal a positive impact of NCC zones on reducing burglary rates in the targeted areas compared with the control areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Guangquan Li & Robert Haining & Sylvia Richardson & Nicky Best, 2013. "Evaluating the No Cold Calling Zones in Peterborough, England: Application of a Novel Statistical Method for Evaluating Neighbourhood Policing Policies," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(8), pages 2012-2026, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:45:y:2013:i:8:p:2012-2026
    DOI: 10.1068/a45374
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan C Samuel & Edward Sankhulani & Javeria S Qureshi & Paul Baloyi & Charles Thupi & Clara N Lee & William C Miller & Bruce A Cairns & Anthony G Charles, 2012. "Under-Reporting of Road Traffic Mortality in Developing Countries: Application of a Capture-Recapture Statistical Model to Refine Mortality Estimates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-4, February.
    2. Kate Bowers & Shane Johnson & Rob T. Guerette & Lucia Summers & Suzanne Poynton, 2011. "Spatial Displacement And Diffusion Of Benefits Among Geographically Focused Policing Initiatives," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 1-144.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Quick, 2019. "Multiscale spatiotemporal patterns of crime: a Bayesian cross-classified multilevel modelling approach," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 339-365, September.

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