IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/compsc/v28y2011i5p543-565.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rivalry, Instability, and the Probability of International Conflict1

Author

Listed:
  • Ursula E. Daxecker

Abstract

This article addresses the effect of political instability and domestic conflict on the probability of militarized interstate disputes. Existing research on the subject has produced inconsistent findings. I hypothesize that the effect of political instability on international disputes is conditional on states’ involvement in civil conflict. More specifically, I argue that while political instability provides leaders with the willingness to use force, civil war creates the necessary opportunities for initiating conflict abroad. A directed-dyad analysis of international rivals for the 1816–2000 time period shows that instability coupled with civil war increases the probability of militarized interstate dispute initiation among rival states. Results are consistent for alternative indicators of political instability and civil war.

Suggested Citation

  • Ursula E. Daxecker, 2011. "Rivalry, Instability, and the Probability of International Conflict1," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(5), pages 543-565, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:28:y:2011:i:5:p:543-565
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894211418591
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0738894211418591
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0738894211418591?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harff, Barbara, 2003. "No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and Political Mass Murder since 1955," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 57-73, February.
    2. Seden Akcinaroglu & Elizabeth Radziszewski, 2005. "Expectations, Rivalries, and Civil War Duration," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 349-374, October.
    3. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    4. Mansfield, Edward D. & Snyder, Jack, 2002. "Democratic Transitions, Institutional Strength, and War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 297-337, April.
    5. Salehyan, Idean & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2006. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 335-366, April.
    6. James Raymond Vreeland, 2008. "The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(3), pages 401-425, June.
    7. Michael Colaresi, 2004. "When Doves Cry: International Rivalry, Unreciprocated Cooperation, and Leadership Turnover," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 555-570, July.
    8. William D. Berry & Jacqueline H. R. DeMeritt & Justin Esarey, 2010. "Testing for Interaction in Binary Logit and Probit Models: Is a Product Term Essential?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 248-266, January.
    9. Ward, Michael D. & Gleditsch, Kristian S., 1998. "Democratizing for Peace," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(1), pages 51-61, March.
    10. James D. Fearon, 2004. "Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 275-301, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1802-1848, July.
    2. Gries, Thomas & Haake, Claus-Jochen, 2016. "An Economic Theory of 'Destabilization War' '- Compromise for Peace versus Conventional, Guerilla, or Terrorist Warfare," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145617, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Thomas Gries & Claus-Jochen Haake, 2016. "An Economic Theory of 'Destabilization War'," Working Papers CIE 95, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    4. Yuri M. Zhukov, 2014. "Theory of Indiscriminate Violence," Working Paper 365551, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    5. Amanda Murdie & Dursun Peksen, 2013. "The impact of human rights INGO activities on economic sanctions," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 33-53, March.
    6. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    7. Seraina Rüegger & Heidrun Bohnet, 2018. "The Ethnicity of Refugees (ER): A new dataset for understanding flight patterns1," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 65-88, January.
    8. Albornoz, Facundo & Hauk, Esther, 2014. "Civil war and U.S. foreign influence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 64-78.
    9. Christopher Blattman, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.
    10. Fabrizio Carmignani & Parvinder Kler, 2017. "The spillover of war in time and space: exploring some open issues," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 273-288, January.
    11. Thorin M. Wright & J. Michael Greig, 2012. "Staying the Course," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(2), pages 127-147, April.
    12. Mehmet Gurses & Nicolas Rost, 2013. "Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(5), pages 469-491, November.
    13. Eelco van der Maat, 2021. "Simplified complexity: Analytical strategies for conflict event research," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 87-108, January.
    14. Jack A. Goldstone & Robert H. Bates & David L. Epstein & Ted Robert Gurr & Michael B. Lustik & Monty G. Marshall & Jay Ulfelder & Mark Woodward, 2010. "A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 190-208, January.
    15. Michael G. Findley & Josiah F. Marineau, 2015. "Lootable resources and third-party intervention into civil wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(5), pages 465-486, November.
    16. Mroß, Karina, 2015. "The fragile road towards peace and democracy: insights on the effectiveness of international support to post-conflict Burundi," IDOS Discussion Papers 3/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    17. Jacqueline H. Rubin & Will H. Moore, 2007. "Risk Factors for Forced Migrant Flight," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(2), pages 85-104, April.
    18. Brian J. Phillips, 2015. "Civil war, spillover and neighbors’ military spending," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(4), pages 425-442, September.
    19. Babak Rezaeedaryakenari & Steven T. Landis & Cameron G. Thies, 2020. "Food price volatilities and civilian victimization in Africa," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 193-214, March.
    20. Clayton L. Thyne, 2006. "Cheap Signals with Costly Consequences," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 937-961, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:28:y:2011:i:5:p:543-565. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.