IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Supply Forecasting: A Disaggregated Process Approach


  • Paul L. Eckbo
  • Henry D. Jacoby
  • James L. Smith


Work is under way on a forecasting method that incorporates explicit representations of the steps in the oil supply process: exploration, reservoir development, and production. The discovery history of a region and other geological data are inputs to a statistical analysis of the exploratory process. The resulting estimate of the size distribution of new reservoirs is combined with an evaluation of reservoir economies -- taking account of engineering cost, oil price, and taxes. The model produces a forecast of additions to the productive reserve base and oil supply. Progress to date is demonstrated in an application to the North Sea.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul L. Eckbo & Henry D. Jacoby & James L. Smith, 1978. "Oil Supply Forecasting: A Disaggregated Process Approach," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(1), pages 218-235, Spring.
  • Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:9:y:1978:i:spring:p:218-235

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See for details.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Cairns, Robert D., 1990. "Les ressources non renouvelables : le côté offre," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 66(4), pages 444-460, décembre.
    2. Labys, Walter C. & Asano, Hiroshi, 1990. "2.2. Process models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 237-248.
    3. Iledare, Omowumi O., 1995. "Simulating the effect of economic and policy incentives on natural gas drilling and gross reserve additions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 261-279, November.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:9:y:1978:i:spring:p:218-235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.