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Oil Supply Forecasting: A Disaggregated Process Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Paul L. Eckbo
  • Henry D. Jacoby
  • James L. Smith

Abstract

Work is under way on a forecasting method that incorporates explicit representations of the steps in the oil supply process: exploration, reservoir development, and production. The discovery history of a region and other geological data are inputs to a statistical analysis of the exploratory process. The resulting estimate of the size distribution of new reservoirs is combined with an evaluation of reservoir economies -- taking account of engineering cost, oil price, and taxes. The model produces a forecast of additions to the productive reserve base and oil supply. Progress to date is demonstrated in an application to the North Sea.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul L. Eckbo & Henry D. Jacoby & James L. Smith, 1978. "Oil Supply Forecasting: A Disaggregated Process Approach," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(1), pages 218-235, Spring.
  • Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:9:y:1978:i:spring:p:218-235
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    Cited by:

    1. Cairns, Robert D., 1990. "Les ressources non renouvelables : le côté offre," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 66(4), pages 444-460, décembre.
    2. Labys, Walter C. & Asano, Hiroshi, 1990. "2.2. Process models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 237-248.
    3. Iledare, Omowumi O., 1995. "Simulating the effect of economic and policy incentives on natural gas drilling and gross reserve additions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 261-279, November.

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