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Project Independence Report: An Appraisal of Energy Needs up to 1985

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  • Jerry A. Hausman

Abstract

The key question which the Federal Energy Administration's Project Independence Report attempts to answer is the level of U.S. oil imports under different world oil prices. The three essential components of the model which produces the forecasts -- oil and natural gas supply, energy demand, and the integrating model -- are discussed and their potential biases identified. The paper concludes that national gas supply is likely to be higher than the model forecasts, while serious faults exist in the demand model which finds natural gas and oil products to be complements. In a deregulated BTU equilibrium, these biases lead to a more pessimistic forecast of U.S. imports by 1985 than may actually occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerry A. Hausman, 1975. "Project Independence Report: An Appraisal of Energy Needs up to 1985," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 6(2), pages 517-551, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:6:y:1975:i:autumn:p:517-551
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    Cited by:

    1. T.R.L. Fry & R.D. Brooks & Br. Comley & J. Zhang, 1993. "Economic Motivations for Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variable Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(2), pages 193-205, June.
    2. Hausman, Jerry A. & Leonard, Gregory K., 2007. "Estimation of patent licensing value using a flexible demand specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 242-258, August.
    3. Lin, C.Y. Cynthia, 2009. "An Empirical Dynamic Model of OPEC and Non-OPEC," Working Papers 225895, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. Kolstad, Charles D., 2000. "Energy and Depletable Resources: Economics and Policy, 1973-1998," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 282-305, May.
    5. Lin, C.Y. Cynthia, 2008. "Estimating Supply and Demand in the World Oil Market," Working Papers 225893, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    6. Hahn, Jinyong & Hausman, Jerry & Lustig, Josh, 2020. "Specification test on mixed logit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 19-37.
    7. Hausman, Jerry A. & Leonard, Gregory K. & McFadden, Daniel, 1995. "A utility-consistent, combined discrete choice and count data model Assessing recreational use losses due to natural resource damage," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-30, January.
    8. Solomon, Barry D. & Krishna, Karthik, 2011. "The coming sustainable energy transition: History, strategies, and outlook," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7422-7431.
    9. Hassan Ghassan & Prashanta Banerjee, 2015. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric adjustment of OPEC and non-OPEC monthly crude oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 305-323, August.

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