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Amenazas ambientales y vulnerabilidad en un contexto de variabilidad climática en Bolivia

  • Sanjines, Gimmy Nardó

    ()

    (Universidad Católica Boliviana)

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    El objetivo del presente trabajo de investigación es mostrar el impacto de las amenazas de la inundación, la sequía y la helada en el bienestar de las diferentes regiones de Bolivia, tomando a las vulnerabilidades como variables de aproximación a los indicadores socioeconómicos de bienestar. La investigación aporta al estado del conocimiento con un nuevo método para estimar e identificar los impactos en el bienestar socioeconómico producido por el cambio climático, a partir de la combinación del análisis de la variabilidad climática con la inteligencia artificial. Para lograr el objetivo planteado de identificar las relaciones entre amenazas, vulnerabilidades y el bienestar se construyen diversos Sistemas Expertos (los mismos que pertenecen al área de la Inteligencia Artificial) con base en el algoritmo C4.5. El algoritmo tiene como característica principal que permite ensamblar los árboles de decisión con base en tablas de datos, haciendo de esta manera el trabajo de reconocimiento de patrones mediantes testores. El reconocimiento de patrones permite describir el incremento o decremento del bienestar producido por las variables objeto de estudio.

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    File URL: http://www.iisec.ucb.edu.bo/journal/articulos/1605.pdf
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    Article provided by Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana in its journal Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico.

    Volume (Year): (2011)
    Issue (Month): 16 (Noviembre)
    Pages: 81-130

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1604
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Universidad católica Boliviana San Pablo, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio Económicas, Av. 14 de septiembre 4807. Obrajes, La Paz, Bolivia
    Phone: (591-2) 784159
    Fax: (591-2) 786707
    Web page: http://www.iisec.ucb.edu.boEmail:


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