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Amenazas ambientales y vulnerabilidad en un contexto de variabilidad climática en Bolivia

Author

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  • Sanjines, Gimmy Nardó

    () (Universidad Católica Boliviana)

Abstract

El objetivo del presente trabajo de investigación es mostrar el impacto de las amenazas de la inundación, la sequía y la helada en el bienestar de las diferentes regiones de Bolivia, tomando a las vulnerabilidades como variables de aproximación a los indicadores socioeconómicos de bienestar. La investigación aporta al estado del conocimiento con un nuevo método para estimar e identificar los impactos en el bienestar socioeconómico producido por el cambio climático, a partir de la combinación del análisis de la variabilidad climática con la inteligencia artificial. Para lograr el objetivo planteado de identificar las relaciones entre amenazas, vulnerabilidades y el bienestar se construyen diversos Sistemas Expertos (los mismos que pertenecen al área de la Inteligencia Artificial) con base en el algoritmo C4.5. El algoritmo tiene como característica principal que permite ensamblar los árboles de decisión con base en tablas de datos, haciendo de esta manera el trabajo de reconocimiento de patrones mediantes testores. El reconocimiento de patrones permite describir el incremento o decremento del bienestar producido por las variables objeto de estudio.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjines, Gimmy Nardó, 2011. "Amenazas ambientales y vulnerabilidad en un contexto de variabilidad climática en Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 16, pages 81-130, Noviembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inteligencia Artificial; Sistemas Expertos; riesgos ambientales; Path theory; Impacto en el bienestar; impacto socioeconómico; economía del bienestar;

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • C89 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy

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