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How Is the RMB Exchange Rate Misaligned? A Recent Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to China

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  • Cui , Yuming

    (Waseda University)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to estimate the degree of RMB misalignment from its equilibrium exchange rate by applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. We employ monthly data with reference to China's top 20 trading partners covering the period of 1997 to 2012. We find that the RMB was slightly overvalued before 2001 and significantly undervalued by up to 20 per cent in the end of 2006. There is evidence showing that the RMB approached to its equilibrium level from 2007 to 2008. However, the global financial crisis interrupted the trend of declining misalignment of RMB exchange rate. The RMB’s total misalignment increased to around 25 per cent in the mid-2011 mainly because the RMB was re-pegged to the US dollar and some currencies of China's main trading partners depreciated during the period of crisis. More recently, the degree of RMB misalignment slightly declined since 2012 when the RMB proceeded to appreciate and China’s ratio of current account surplus to GDP dropped considerably. Our findings prove that there is a trend of the RMB approaching to its equilibrium exchange rate since 2007 except for the period of crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Cui , Yuming, 2013. "How Is the RMB Exchange Rate Misaligned? A Recent Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to China," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 17(3), pages 281-310, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0055
    DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2013.17.3.267
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    Cited by:

    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2019. "Truths and Myths About RMB Misalignment: A Meta-analysis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 464-492, September.
    2. Yuming Cui & Changrong Lu, 2018. "Are China's unit labour costs still competitive? A comparison with ASEAN countries," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 32(1), pages 59-76, May.
    3. Coppola,Andrea & Lagerborg,Andresa & Mustafaoglu,Zafer, 2016. "Estimating an equilibrium exchange rate for the Argentine Peso," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7682, The World Bank.
    4. Wilfredo L. Maldonado & Octávio A. F. Tourinho & Jorge A. B. M. de Abreu, 2014. "Cointegrated Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the Exchange Rate of 'BRICS' Countries," CAMA Working Papers 2014-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Almås, Ingvild & Grewal, Mandeep & Hvide, Marielle & Ugurlu, Serhat, 2017. "The PPP approach revisited: A study of RMB valuation against the USD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 18-38.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; RMB; Exchange Rate; Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER); Misalignment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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