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Bulles spéculatives et transmission d’information sur le marché d’un bien stockable

  • Broze, L.

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

  • Gouriéroux, C.

    (CEPREMAP)

  • Szafarz, A.

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

We are interested in the evolution of the equilibrium price of a stockable commodity which can be demanded for speculative purposes. Using a model "à la Grossman", we determine all the possible price evolutions and we analyse the effect of the structural parameters on the growth of speculative bubbles. The model can be extended to the case of agents having diverse informations. It is shown that, if they have a minimal level of information, they form necessarily the same equilibrium price expectations. Then it is possible to characterize the cases where the market is efficient. Nous étudions l’évolution du prix d’équilibre pour un bien stockable à titre spéculatif. L’impact des différents paramètres structurels sur l’amplitude des bulles spéculatives est mis en évidence. De plus le paramètre auxiliaire lié à la présence d’anticipations rationnelles est interprété comme une mesure de la confiance accordée par les agents à leurs propres anticipations. Lorsque les agents sont différenciés, notamment par le niveau de l’information dont ils disposent, nous montrons que tous les spéculateurs atteignant un seuil d’information forment les mêmes anticipations. De la sorte, on peut caractériser les cas où le marché est efficient.

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Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 62 (1986)
Issue (Month): 2 (juin)
Pages: 166-184

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:62:y:1986:i:2:p:166-184
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  1. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  3. HELLWIG, Martin F., . "Rational expectations equilibrium with conditioning on past prices: a mean-variance example," CORE Discussion Papers RP -480, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
  5. Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1983. "Rational Asset Price Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 1059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1982. "Instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 263-296.
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