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Banking Panics and Output Dynamics

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  • Daniel Sanches

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with an essential role for an illiquid banking system to investigate output dynamics in the event of a banking crisis. In particular, it considers the ex-post efficient policy response to a banking crisis as part of the dynamic equilibrium analysis. It is shown that the trajectory of real output following a panic episode crucially depends on the cost of converting long-term assets into liquid funds. For small values of the liquidation cost, the recession associated with a banking panic is protracted as a result of the premature liquidation of a large fraction of productive banking assets to respond to a panic. For intermediate values, the recession is more severe but short-lived. For relatively large values, the contemporaneous decline in real output in the event of a panic is substantial but followed by a vigorous rebound in real activity above the long-run level. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Sanches, 2018. "Banking Panics and Output Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 148-171, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:16-333
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2017.12.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking panic; Deposit contract; Suspension of convertibility; Time-consistent policies;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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