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Usando un modelo semi-estructural de pequeña escala para hacer proyecciones: Algunas consideraciones

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  • Luque, Javier
  • Vega, Marco

Abstract

Se presenta una breve exposición de un modelo semi-estructural agregado y de pequeña escala para realizar proyecciones de inflación y hacer análisis de política monetaria dentro del marco de Meta Explícita de Inflación del Banco Central. En la exposición, se describe la dinámica del modelo y se detallan los elementos involucrados en una proyección condicional a una determinada postura de política monetaria. Para ello, se simula una proyección asumiendo tanto una postura de política monetaria activa emanada de una regla de comportamiento así como una postura pasiva que induce una determinada tasa de política durante el horizonte de proyección. La simulación muestra los problemas teóricos resultantes cuando se asume una postura pasiva. Por ello, se esboza una forma de remediar la posible anomalía que surge al hacer este tipo de proyecciones.

Suggested Citation

  • Luque, Javier & Vega, Marco, 2003. "Usando un modelo semi-estructural de pequeña escala para hacer proyecciones: Algunas consideraciones," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 10.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-10-01
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    File URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/10/Estudios-Economicos-10-1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cecilia Garavito, 1998. "Determinantes del Desempleo en Lima Metropolitana, 1970-1996," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, issue 41, pages 143-184.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2001. "El desempleo en Colombia," COYUNTURA SOCIAL 012955, FEDESARROLLO.
    3. Roberto Chang, 1997. "Is low unemployment inflationary?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q I, pages 4-13.
    4. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
    5. Jaime Saavedra Chanduví & Eduardo Maruyama Sasaki, 2000. "Estabilidad laboral e indemnización: efectos de los costos de despido sobre el funcionamiento del mercado laboral peruano," Documentos de Investigación dt28, Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE).
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Mendieta Ossio, 2010. "The renaissance of Friedman hypothesis: nature of global financial crisis and consequences in a small open and highly dollarized economy," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 13(1), pages 119-151, December.
    2. Llosa, Gonzalo & Tuesta, Vicente & Vega, Marco, 2006. "Un modelo de proyección BVAR para la inflación peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 13.
    3. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," Research Department Publications 4423, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2008. "Metas de inflación en una economía dolarizada: La experiencia del Perú," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 10(1), pages 7-44, December.
    5. Pablo Mendieta Ossio & Hugo Rodriguez Gonzales, 2005. "Interacción de la política fiscal con la política monetaria en el MERCOSUR y países asociados," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 8(1), pages 49-97, December.
    6. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1925, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente, 2007. "Hechos estilizados de la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 14, pages 33-75.
    8. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Measuring the Natural Interest Rate for the Peruvian Economy," Working Papers 2006-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    9. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Fijación de metas inflacionarias en una economía dolarizada: la experiencia de Perú," Research Department Publications 4424, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Stylized Facts of the Peruvian Economy," Working Papers 2006-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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