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Usando un modelo semi-estructural de pequeña escala para hacer proyecciones: Algunas consideraciones

Listed author(s):
  • Luque, Javier
  • Vega, Marco

Se presenta una breve exposición de un modelo semi-estructural agregado y de pequeña escala para realizar proyecciones de inflación y hacer análisis de política monetaria dentro del marco de Meta Explícita de Inflación del Banco Central. En la exposición, se describe la dinámica del modelo y se detallan los elementos involucrados en una proyección condicional a una determinada postura de política monetaria. Para ello, se simula una proyección asumiendo tanto una postura de política monetaria activa emanada de una regla de comportamiento así como una postura pasiva que induce una determinada tasa de política durante el horizonte de proyección. La simulación muestra los problemas teóricos resultantes cuando se asume una postura pasiva. Por ello, se esboza una forma de remediar la posible anomalía que surge al hacer este tipo de proyecciones.

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Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): 10 ()

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-10-01
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