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Baisse des taux et relance de la consommation : implications de la prise en compte des biens durables

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  • Gilles Caire

Abstract

[fre] En prenant en compte la spécificité des biens durables, il est possible de proposer une conception alternative au lien théorique traditionnel entre consommation et taux d'intérêt. Dans un cadre d'optimisation intertemporelle, et en transposant aux biens durables la notion de coût d'usage issue de la théorie de l'investissement, les canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire seraient alors potentiellement plus nombreux. L'estimation sur données françaises (71-93), en s'appuyant sur la démarche de Mankiw [1985] utilisant les conditions de premier ordre, conduit cependant à des résultats peu favorables à l'hypothèse de sensibilité des achats de biens durables au taux d'intérêt, du moins dans le cas de marchés, des biens et des capitaux, supposés parfaits. [eng] Taking the specificity of durable goods into consideration, it's possible to propose an alternative conception to the traditional and theorical link between consumption and interest rate. In the framework of intertemporal optimisation, transposing the notion of user cost to consumer durables, the effects of monetary politics could be potentially larger. The estimation in French data (71-93), leaning on Mankiw's process using first order conditions [1985], leads however to relative unfavorable results to the hypothesis of sensibility of consumer durables purchases to interest rate, at least in the case of goods and capital markets, which are supposed perfects.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Caire, 1996. "Baisse des taux et relance de la consommation : implications de la prise en compte des biens durables," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 11(2), pages 87-109.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1996_num_11_2_1005
    DOI: 10.3406/rfeco.1996.1005
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1996.1005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marie-Gabriel Foggea & Pierre Villa, 2002. "Le concept de coût d'usage Putty-Clay des biens durables," Working Papers 2002-09, CEPII research center.

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