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Planification, incertitude et politique économique. I. L'opération Optimix : une procédure formalisée d'adaptation du Plan à l'aléa

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  • Roger Guesnerie
  • Pierre Malgrange
  • Michel Deleau

Abstract

[fre] Planification, incertitude et politique économique. L'opération « optimix » : une procédure formalisée d'adaptation du plan à l'aléa. . L'article examine d'abord dans le contexte de la planification française les problèmes de la liaison Budget-Plan, auxquels l'accroissement constaté des incertitudes exogènes confère une acuité nouvelle. On propose une procédure formalisée d'adaptation du Plan à l'aléa fondée sur une structuration du problème en un schéma décisionnel de type classique.. On présente dans la deuxième partie les éléments retenus pour l'étude: définition des variables, modèles, fonction-objectif, aléas, critères de choix, structure d'information. Les résultats numériques obtenus feront l'objet d'un prochain article de cette revue. [eng] Planning, uncertainty and economic policy. a formalized procedure: «optimix». . The article deals with the problems raised by the coordination of the annual Budgets with medium-term Plan for the case of the French Economy. These problems were made more acute by the increased importance of uncertain uncontrolled factors during the period of the sixth Plan.. A formalized procedure for adapting the implementation of the Plan to the occurence of unforeseen events is proposed. It is based on a structuration of the problem in the framework of a classical decision-making scheme.. In second part, the elements of this scheme are presented: variables, dynamic model, objective function, uncontrolled factorsf choice criterion, information structure.. The numerical results will be presented in a forthcoming article in this review.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Guesnerie & Pierre Malgrange & Michel Deleau, 1973. "Planification, incertitude et politique économique. I. L'opération Optimix : une procédure formalisée d'adaptation du Plan à l'aléa," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(5), pages 801-836.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1973_num_24_5_408112
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1973.408112
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1973.408112
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    1. Roger Guesnerie & Pierre Malgrange, 1972. "Formalisation des objectifs à moyen terme. Application au VIe Plan," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 23(3), pages 442-492.
    2. Malinvaud, E, 1969. "First Order Certainty Equivalence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(4), pages 706-718, October.
    3. Bela Balassa, 1965. "Whither French Planning?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 79(4), pages 537-554.
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