IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0238199.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improving preoperative risk-of-death prediction in surgery congenital heart defects using artificial intelligence model: A pilot study

Author

Listed:
  • João Chang Junior
  • Fábio Binuesa
  • Luiz Fernando Caneo
  • Aida Luiza Ribeiro Turquetto
  • Elisandra Cristina Trevisan Calvo Arita
  • Aline Cristina Barbosa
  • Alfredo Manoel da Silva Fernandes
  • Evelinda Marramon Trindade
  • Fábio Biscegli Jatene
  • Paul-Eric Dossou
  • Marcelo Biscegli Jatene

Abstract

Background: Congenital heart disease accounts for almost a third of all major congenital anomalies. Congenital heart defects have a significant impact on morbidity, mortality and health costs for children and adults. Research regarding the risk of pre-surgical mortality is scarce. Objectives: Our goal is to generate a predictive model calculator adapted to the regional reality focused on individual mortality prediction among patients with congenital heart disease undergoing cardiac surgery. Methods: Two thousand two hundred forty CHD consecutive patients’ data from InCor’s heart surgery program was used to develop and validate the preoperative risk-of-death prediction model of congenital patients undergoing heart surgery. There were six artificial intelligence models most cited in medical references used in this study: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Random Forest (RF), Extra Trees (ET), Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB), Ada Boost Classification (ABC) and Bag Decision Trees (BDT). Results: The top performing areas under the curve were achieved using Random Forest (0.902). Most influential predictors included previous admission to ICU, diagnostic group, patient's height, hypoplastic left heart syndrome, body mass, arterial oxygen saturation, and pulmonary atresia. These combined predictor variables represent 67.8% of importance for the risk of mortality in the Random Forest algorithm. Conclusions: The representativeness of “hospital death” is greater in patients up to 66 cm in height and body mass index below 13.0 for InCor’s patients. The proportion of “hospital death” declines with the increased arterial oxygen saturation index. Patients with prior hospitalization before surgery had higher “hospital death” rates than who did not required such intervention. The diagnoses groups having the higher fatal outcomes probability are aligned with the international literature. A web application is presented where researchers and providers can calculate predicted mortality based on the CgntSCORE on any web browser or smartphone.

Suggested Citation

  • João Chang Junior & Fábio Binuesa & Luiz Fernando Caneo & Aida Luiza Ribeiro Turquetto & Elisandra Cristina Trevisan Calvo Arita & Aline Cristina Barbosa & Alfredo Manoel da Silva Fernandes & Evelinda, 2020. "Improving preoperative risk-of-death prediction in surgery congenital heart defects using artificial intelligence model: A pilot study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0238199
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238199
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238199&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0238199?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Takaya Saito & Marc Rehmsmeier, 2015. "The Precision-Recall Plot Is More Informative than the ROC Plot When Evaluating Binary Classifiers on Imbalanced Datasets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher J Greenwood & George J Youssef & Primrose Letcher & Jacqui A Macdonald & Lauryn J Hagg & Ann Sanson & Jenn Mcintosh & Delyse M Hutchinson & John W Toumbourou & Matthew Fuller-Tyszkiewicz &, 2020. "A comparison of penalised regression methods for informing the selection of predictive markers," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, November.
    2. Le, Hong Hanh & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Predicting bank failure: An improvement by implementing a machine-learning approach to classical financial ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 16-25.
    3. Arthur De Sá Ferreira & Ney Meziat-Filho & Ana Paula Antunes Ferreira, 2021. "Double threshold receiver operating characteristic plot for three-modal continuous predictors," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 2231-2245, September.
    4. Fan, Xudong & Wang, Xiaowei & Zhang, Xijin & ASCE Xiong (Bill) Yu, P.E.F., 2022. "Machine learning based water pipe failure prediction: The effects of engineering, geology, climate and socio-economic factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    5. Zhang, Han, 2021. "How Using Machine Learning Classification as a Variable in Regression Leads to Attenuation Bias and What to Do About It," SocArXiv 453jk, Center for Open Science.
    6. Masabho P Milali & Samson S Kiware & Nicodem J Govella & Fredros Okumu & Naveen Bansal & Serdar Bozdag & Jacques D Charlwood & Marta F Maia & Sheila B Ogoma & Floyd E Dowell & George F Corliss & Maggy, 2020. "An autoencoder and artificial neural network-based method to estimate parity status of wild mosquitoes from near-infrared spectra," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, June.
    7. Daniel R Jeske, 2018. "Metrics Used When Evaluating the Performance of Statistical Classifiers," Biostatistics and Biometrics Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 8(1), pages 7-9, August.
    8. Juliet Chebet Moso & Stéphane Cormier & Cyril de Runz & Hacène Fouchal & John Mwangi Wandeto, 2021. "Anomaly Detection on Data Streams for Smart Agriculture," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-17, November.
    9. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
    10. Tzu-Hsuan Lin & Jehn-Ruey Jiang, 2021. "Credit Card Fraud Detection with Autoencoder and Probabilistic Random Forest," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-16, October.
    11. Robert A. Blair & Nicholas Sambanis, 2021. "Is Theory Useful for Conflict Prediction? A Response to Beger, Morgan, and Ward," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(7-8), pages 1427-1453, August.
    12. Mieke Deschepper & Willem Waegeman & Dirk Vogelaers & Kristof Eeckloo, 2020. "Using structured pathology data to predict hospital-wide mortality at admission," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-11, June.
    13. Alfred Krzywicki & David Muchlinski & Benjamin E. Goldsmith & Arcot Sowmya, 2022. "From academia to policy makers: a methodology for real-time forecasting of infrequent events," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 1489-1510, November.
    14. Falco J. Bargagli-Dtoffi & Massimo Riccaboni & Armando Rungi, 2020. "Machine Learning for Zombie Hunting. Firms Failures and Financial Constraints," Working Papers 01/2020, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Jun 2020.
    15. Marco Due~nas & V'ictor Ortiz & Massimo Riccaboni & Francesco Serti, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Trade: a Machine Learning Counterfactual Analysis," Papers 2104.04570, arXiv.org.
    16. Jianyuan Deng & Zhibo Yang & Hehe Wang & Iwao Ojima & Dimitris Samaras & Fusheng Wang, 2023. "A systematic study of key elements underlying molecular property prediction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, December.
    17. Kwanda Sydwell Ngwenduna & Rendani Mbuvha, 2021. "Alleviating Class Imbalance in Actuarial Applications Using Generative Adversarial Networks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-33, March.
    18. Stéphane Crépey & Lehdili Noureddine & Nisrine Madhar & Maud Thomas, 2022. "Anomaly Detection on Financial Time Series by Principal Component Analysis and Neural Networks," Working Papers hal-03777995, HAL.
    19. Yifan Zhong & Chuang Cai & Tao Chen & Hao Gui & Jiajun Deng & Minglei Yang & Bentong Yu & Yongxiang Song & Tingting Wang & Xiwen Sun & Jingyun Shi & Yangchun Chen & Dong Xie & Chang Chen & Yunlang She, 2023. "PET/CT based cross-modal deep learning signature to predict occult nodal metastasis in lung cancer," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    20. Gallego, Jorge & Rivero, Gonzalo & Martínez, Juan, 2021. "Preventing rather than punishing: An early warning model of malfeasance in public procurement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 360-377.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0238199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.