Beyond Risk Compensation: Clusters of Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Users in Sexual Networks Can Modify the Impact of ART on HIV Incidence

Introduction: Concerns about risk compensation—increased risk behaviours in response to a perception of reduced HIV transmission risk—after the initiation of ART have largely been dispelled in empirical studies, but other changes in sexual networking patterns may still modify the effects of ART on HIV incidence. Methods: We developed an exploratory mathematical model of HIV transmission that incorporates the possibility of ART clusters, i.e. subsets of the sexual network in which the density of ART patients is much higher than in the rest of the network. Such clusters may emerge as a result of ART homophily—a tendency for ART patients to preferentially form and maintain relationships with other ART patients. We assessed whether ART clusters may affect the impact of ART on HIV incidence, and how the influence of this effect-modifying variable depends on contextual variables such as HIV prevalence, HIV serosorting, coverage of HIV testing and ART, and adherence to ART. Results: ART homophily can modify the impact of ART on HIV incidence in both directions. In concentrated epidemics and generalized epidemics with moderate HIV prevalence (≈ 10%), ART clusters can enhance the impact of ART on HIV incidence, especially when adherence to ART is poor. In hyperendemic settings (≈ 35% HIV prevalence), ART clusters can reduce the impact of ART on HIV incidence when adherence to ART is high but few people living with HIV (PLWH) have been diagnosed. In all contexts, the effects of ART clusters on HIV epidemic dynamics are distinct from those of HIV serosorting. Conclusions: Depending on the programmatic and epidemiological context, ART clusters may enhance or reduce the impact of ART on HIV incidence, in contrast to serosorting, which always leads to a lower impact of ART on HIV incidence. ART homophily and the emergence of ART clusters should be measured empirically and incorporated into more refined models used to plan and evaluate ART programmes.