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Randomization Does Not Help Much, Comparability Does

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  • Uwe Saint-Mont

Abstract

According to R.A. Fisher, randomization “relieves the experimenter from the anxiety of considering innumerable causes by which the data may be disturbed.” Since, in particular, it is said to control for known and unknown nuisance factors that may considerably challenge the validity of a result, it has become very popular. This contribution challenges the received view. First, looking for quantitative support, we study a number of straightforward, mathematically simple models. They all demonstrate that the optimism surrounding randomization is questionable: In small to medium-sized samples, random allocation of units to treatments typically yields a considerable imbalance between the groups, i.e., confounding due to randomization is the rule rather than the exception. In the second part of this contribution, the reasoning is extended to a number of traditional arguments in favour of randomization. This discussion is rather non-technical, and sometimes touches on the rather fundamental Frequentist/Bayesian debate. However, the result of this analysis turns out to be quite similar: While the contribution of randomization remains doubtful, comparability contributes much to a compelling conclusion. Summing up, classical experimentation based on sound background theory and the systematic construction of exchangeable groups seems to be advisable.

Suggested Citation

  • Uwe Saint-Mont, 2015. "Randomization Does Not Help Much, Comparability Does," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-24, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0132102
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0132102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Draper & James S. Hodges & Colin L. Mallows & Daryl Pregibon, 1993. "Exchangeability and Data Analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(1), pages 9-28, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jéssica Cordeiro Rodrigues & Mariana Arias Avila & Patricia Driusso, 2021. "Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation for women with primary dysmenorrhea: Study protocol for a randomized controlled clinical trial with economic evaluation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-11, May.
    2. Aufenanger, Tobias, 2018. "Treatment allocation for linear models," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 14/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics, revised 2018.
    3. John Damiao, 2022. "Cumulative Equivalence: Controlling for Inter-Individual Differences at Baseline Characteristic Testing of RCTs," Global Journal of Health Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(7), pages 1-32, July.

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