IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0018038.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projected Changes to Growth and Mortality of Hawaiian Corals over the Next 100 Years

Author

Listed:
  • Ron K Hoeke
  • Paul L Jokiel
  • Robert W Buddemeier
  • Russell E Brainard

Abstract

Background: Recent reviews suggest that the warming and acidification of ocean surface waters predicated by most accepted climate projections will lead to mass mortality and declining calcification rates of reef-building corals. This study investigates the use of modeling techniques to quantitatively examine rates of coral cover change due to these effects. Methodology/Principal Findings: Broad-scale probabilities of change in shallow-water scleractinian coral cover in the Hawaiian Archipelago for years 2000–2099 A.D. were calculated assuming a single middle-of-the-road greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These projections were based on ensemble calculations of a growth and mortality model that used sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), observed coral growth (calcification) rates, and observed mortality linked to mass coral bleaching episodes as inputs. SST and CO2 predictions were derived from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) multi-model dataset, statistically downscaled with historical data. Conclusions/Significance: The model calculations illustrate a practical approach to systematic evaluation of climate change effects on corals, and also show the effect of uncertainties in current climate predictions and in coral adaptation capabilities on estimated changes in coral cover. Despite these large uncertainties, this analysis quantitatively illustrates that a large decline in coral cover is highly likely in the 21st Century, but that there are significant spatial and temporal variances in outcomes, even under a single climate change scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron K Hoeke & Paul L Jokiel & Robert W Buddemeier & Russell E Brainard, 2011. "Projected Changes to Growth and Mortality of Hawaiian Corals over the Next 100 Years," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0018038
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0018038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0018038
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0018038&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0018038?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riegl, Bernhard M. & Purkis, Samuel J., 2009. "Model of coral population response to accelerated bleaching and mass mortality in a changing climate," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 192-208.
    2. John F Bruno & Elizabeth R Selig, 2007. "Regional Decline of Coral Cover in the Indo-Pacific: Timing, Extent, and Subregional Comparisons," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-8, August.
    3. Maina, Joseph & Venus, Valentijn & McClanahan, Timothy R. & Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu, 2008. "Modelling susceptibility of coral reefs to environmental stress using remote sensing data and GIS models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 180-199.
    4. Andréa G. Grottoli & Lisa J. Rodrigues & James E. Palardy, 2006. "Heterotrophic plasticity and resilience in bleached corals," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7088), pages 1186-1189, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Speers, Ann E. & Besedin, Elena Y. & Palardy, James E. & Moore, Chris, 2016. "Impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reef fisheries: An integrated ecological–economic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 33-43.
    2. Timothy McClanahan & Joseph Maina & Mebrahtu Ateweberhan, 2015. "Regional coral responses to climate disturbances and warming is predicted by multivariate stress model and not temperature threshold metrics," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 607-620, August.
    3. Phillip K Lowe & John F Bruno & Elizabeth R Selig & Matthew Spencer, 2011. "Empirical Models of Transitions between Coral Reef States: Effects of Region, Protection, and Environmental Change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(11), pages 1-15, November.
    4. González-Rivero, Manuel & Yakob, Laith & Mumby, Peter J., 2011. "The role of sponge competition on coral reef alternative steady states," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(11), pages 1847-1853.
    5. Conrad W Speed & Russ C Babcock & Kevin P Bancroft & Lynnath E Beckley & Lynda M Bellchambers & Martial Depczynski & Stuart N Field & Kim J Friedman & James P Gilmour & Jean-Paul A Hobbs & Halina T Ko, 2013. "Dynamic Stability of Coral Reefs on the West Australian Coast," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-12, July.
    6. Paul R. Ehrlich & John Harte, 2018. "Pessimism on the Food Front," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-5, April.
    7. Francis Rathinam & Sayak Khatua & Zeba Siddiqui & Manya Malik & Pallavi Duggal & Samantha Watson & Xavier Vollenweider, 2021. "Using big data for evaluating development outcomes: A systematic map," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), September.
    8. Jamison M Gove & Gareth J Williams & Margaret A McManus & Scott F Heron & Stuart A Sandin & Oliver J Vetter & David G Foley, 2013. "Quantifying Climatological Ranges and Anomalies for Pacific Coral Reef Ecosystems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, April.
    9. Miñarro, Sara & Leins, Johannes & Acevedo-Trejos, Esteban & Fulton, Elizabeth A. & Reuter, Hauke, 2018. "SEAMANCORE: A spatially explicit simulation model for assisting the local MANagement of COral REefs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 296-307.
    10. Milne, Russell & Anand, Madhur & Bauch, Chris T., 2023. "Preparing for and managing crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks on reefs under threat from interacting anthropogenic stressors," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).
    11. Ronaldo B Francini-Filho & Ericka O C Coni & Pedro M Meirelles & Gilberto M Amado-Filho & Fabiano L Thompson & Guilherme H Pereira-Filho & Alex C Bastos & Douglas P Abrantes & Camilo M Ferreira & Fern, 2013. "Dynamics of Coral Reef Benthic Assemblages of the Abrolhos Bank, Eastern Brazil: Inferences on Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, January.
    12. R. Buddemeier & Diana Lane & J. Martinich, 2011. "Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 375-397, December.
    13. Selig, Elizabeth R. & Frazier, Melanie & O'Leary, Jennifer K. & Jupiter, Stacy D. & Halpern, Benjamin S. & Longo, Catherine & Kleisner, Kristin L. & Sivo, Loraini & Ranelletti, Marla, 2015. "Measuring indicators of ocean health for an island nation: The ocean health index for Fiji," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 403-412.
    14. Alex S. J. Wyatt & James J. Leichter & Libe Washburn & Li Kui & Peter J. Edmunds & Scott C. Burgess, 2023. "Hidden heatwaves and severe coral bleaching linked to mesoscale eddies and thermocline dynamics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    15. Albert, Joelle A. & Olds, Andrew D. & Albert, Simon & Cruz-Trinidad, Annabelle & Schwarz, Anne-Maree, 2015. "Reaping the reef: Provisioning services from coral reefs in Solomon Islands," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 244-251.
    16. Brice X Semmens & Peter J Auster & Michelle J Paddack, 2010. "Using Ecological Null Models to Assess the Potential for Marine Protected Area Networks to Protect Biodiversity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, January.
    17. Frederieke J. Kroon & Diego R. Barneche & Michael J. Emslie, 2021. "Fish predators control outbreaks of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Julie Vercelloni & M Julian Caley & Mohsen Kayal & Samantha Low-Choy & Kerrie Mengersen, 2014. "Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-9, November.
    19. Gareth J Williams & Greta S Aeby & Rebecca O M Cowie & Simon K Davy, 2010. "Predictive Modeling of Coral Disease Distribution within a Reef System," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(2), pages 1-10, February.
    20. Gustafsson, Malin S.M. & Baird, Mark E. & Ralph, Peter J., 2013. "The interchangeability of autotrophic and heterotrophic nitrogen sources in Scleractinian coral symbiotic relationships: A numerical study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 183-194.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0018038. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.