IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pgph00/0004168.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Characterization of environmental and clinical surveillance inputs to support prospective integrated modeling of the polio endgame

Author

Listed:
  • Kamran Badizadegan
  • Kimberly M Thompson

Abstract

National, regional, and global poliovirus surveillance needs continue to expand and evolve. The 1988 global resolution to eradicate polio necessitated the creation and support for a global poliovirus surveillance system able to identify poliovirus transmission anywhere and everywhere. Clinical surveillance of patients that present with acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) became an essential tool, and the need for standardized laboratory methods to detect polioviruses isolated from stool samples of AFP patients led to the development of the Global Poliovirus Laboratory Network (GPLN) in 1990. Relatively recently, the GPLN expanded to include environmental surveillance to obtain additional information about poliovirus transmission in some geographies and to increase confidence about the absence of poliovirus transmission after successful eradication and/or the cessation of use of live-attenuated oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs). Historical polio eradication strategic plans anticipated that successful global poliovirus eradication would lead to reduced requirements for financial investments for a poliovirus-specific surveillance system, and consequent transition of capacity and resources into integrated national disease surveillance systems. However, given the state of the polio endgame with ongoing transmission in several geographies, current global strategic plans include poliovirus-specific surveillance for the foreseeable future. In addition, the development and expansion of genetic testing technologies create new opportunities for poliovirus surveillance system designs. The expected growth (instead of decline) of poliovirus surveillance needs as of 2024, as well as innovations in laboratory technologies and expansion wastewater sampling, raise questions about the tradeoffs of different options and the future of poliovirus surveillance. This descriptive review of poliovirus surveillance evidence as of late 2024 aims to provide national, regional, and global decision makers with an understanding of prospective tradeoffs and uncertainties and to support prospective assumptions relevant for integrated policy, poliovirus transmission, and economic modeling for 2024–2035.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamran Badizadegan & Kimberly M Thompson, 2025. "Characterization of environmental and clinical surveillance inputs to support prospective integrated modeling of the polio endgame," PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(2), pages 1-21, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0004168
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0004168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0004168
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0004168&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pgph.0004168?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 703-749, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Richard Franka & Jeff Higgins & Stephanie D. Kovacs & Joseph C. Forbi & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Mark A. Pallansch & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Borno and Yobe, Northeast Nigeria," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 289-302, February.
    2. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019–2029," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 364-375, February.
    3. Kimberly M. Thompson & Stephen L. Cochi, 2016. "Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1288-1296, July.
    4. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Evaluation of Proactive and Reactive Strategies for Polio Eradication Activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 389-401, February.
    5. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Amanda Wilkinson & Ananda S. Bandyopadhyay & Jennifer L. Konopka‐Anstadt & Cara C. Burns & M. Steven Oberste & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Kamran Badizadegan & , 2021. "Updated Characterization of Outbreak Response Strategies for 2019–2029: Impacts of Using a Novel Type 2 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Strain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 329-348, February.
    6. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Stephen L. Cochi & Derek T. Ehrhardt & Noha H. Farag & Stephen C. Hadler & Lee M. Hampton & Maureen Martinez & Steve G.F. Wassilak & Kimberly M. Thomp, 2018. "Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan to Inform Vaccination Strategies in Undervaccinated Subpopulations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1701-1717, August.
    7. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    8. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Modeling Population Immunity to Support Efforts to End the Transmission of Live Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 647-663, April.
    9. Kamran Badizadegan & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2023. "Health Economic Analysis of Antiviral Drugs in the Global Polio Eradication Endgame," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 43(7-8), pages 850-862, October.
    10. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Cara C. Burns & Olen M. Kew & M. Steven Oberste & Ousmane M. Diop & Steven G.F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Evolution and Insights Relevant to Modeling the Risks of Circulating Vaccine‐Derived Polioviruses (cVDPVs)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 680-702, April.
    11. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 248-265, February.
    12. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 505-515, April.
    13. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Modeling Undetected Live Poliovirus Circulation After Apparent Interruption of Transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 402-413, February.
    14. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 229-247, February.
    15. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2018. "Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine‐preventable diseases," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 78-120, January.
    16. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Environmental Surveillance System Characteristics and Impacts on Confidence About No Undetected Serotype 1 Wild Poliovirus Circulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 414-425, February.
    17. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Steven G.F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2015. "Polio Eradicators Use Integrated Analytical Models to Make Better Decisions," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 45(1), pages 5-25, February.
    18. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kamran Badizadegan, 2021. "A Health Economic Analysis for Oral Poliovirus Vaccine to Prevent COVID‐19 in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 376-386, February.
    19. Kimberly M. Thompson & Nima D. Badizadegan, 2017. "Modeling the Transmission of Measles and Rubella to Support Global Management Policy Analyses and Eradication Investment Cases," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(6), pages 1109-1131, June.
    20. Kimberly M. Thompson & Cassie L. Odahowski, 2016. "Systematic Review of Measles and Rubella Serology Studies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1459-1486, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0004168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: globalpubhealth (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.