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The impact of environmental shocks due to climate change on intimate partner violence: A structural equation model of data from 156 countries

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  • Jenevieve Mannell
  • Laura J Brown
  • Esme Jordaan
  • Abigail Hatcher
  • Andrew Gibbs

Abstract

The impact of climate change on human societies is now well recognised. However, little is known about how climate change alters health conditions over time. National level data around climate shocks and subsequent rates of intimate partner violence (IPV) could have relevance for resilience policy and programming. We hypothesise that climate shocks are associated with a higher national prevalence of IPV two years following a shock, and that this relationship persists for countries with different levels of economic development. We compiled national data for the prevalence of IPV from 363 nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2019. These representative data from ever-partnered women defined IPV incidence as any past-year act of physical and/or sexual violence. We also compiled data from the Emergency Events Database (EM DAT) on the national frequency of eight climate shocks from 1920 to 2022 within 190 countries. Using exploratory factor analysis, we fit a three-factor latent variable composed of climate shock variables. We then fit a structural equation model from climate shocks (lagged by two years) and IPV incidence, controlling for (log) national gross domestic product (GDP). National data representing 156 countries suggest a significant relationship between IPV and a climate factor (Hydro-meteorological) composed of storms, landslides and floods (standardised estimate = 0·32; SE = 0·128; p = 0·012). GDP has a moderately large cross-sectional association with IPV (estimate = -0·529; SE = 0·047; p = 0·0001). Other climate shocks (Geological: earthquakes/volcanos; Atmospheric: wildfire/droughts/extreme temperature) had no measurable association with IPV. Model fit overall was satisfactory (RMSEA = 0·064 (95%CI: 0·044–0·084); CFI = 0·91; SRMR = 0·063). Climate shocks have a longitudinal association with IPV incidence in global population-based data. This suggests an urgent need to address the higher prevalence of IPV likely to come about through climate shocks due to climate change. Our analysis offers one way policy makers could track national progress using existing data.

Suggested Citation

  • Jenevieve Mannell & Laura J Brown & Esme Jordaan & Abigail Hatcher & Andrew Gibbs, 2024. "The impact of environmental shocks due to climate change on intimate partner violence: A structural equation model of data from 156 countries," PLOS Climate, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(10), pages 1-12, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pclm00:0000478
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000478
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gordon M. Hickey & Nigel Unwin, 2020. "Addressing the triple burden of malnutrition in the time of COVID-19 and climate change in Small Island Developing States: what role for improved local food production?," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 831-835, August.
    2. Abigail M Hatcher & Sabrina Page & Lele Aletta van Eck & Isabelle Pearson & Rebecca Fielding-Miller & Celine Mazars & Heidi Stöckl, 2022. "Systematic review of food insecurity and violence against women and girls: Mixed methods findings from low- and middle-income settings," PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(9), pages 1-18, September.
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