IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v12y2025i1d10.1057_s41599-025-04627-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Female, male, two-sex fertility rates and their population projections

Author

Listed:
  • Nan Li

    (Independent Researcher (Retiree))

  • Hong Mi

    (Zhejiang University)

  • Zhidong Liu

    (Zhejiang University)

Abstract

Fertility behavior is jointly determined by both the mother and the father. However, fertility is traditionally defined as the number of children born to women in demography and related studies. Consequently, the female total fertility rate (TFR) becomes the most important indicator of fertility level, and the population projections issued by the governments and the United Nations are female renewal, of which the births are produced by women only. The absence of men has historically been attributed to the lack of available male fertility data. However, with advancements in data collection and analysis, men’s fertility rates can be calculated for most countries of the world, leading to increasingly available male TFRs and male-renewal population projections. This leads to the question of which TFR and population projection, female or male, female renewal or male renewal, should be used to indicate fertility level and to serve various socioeconomic programs. Using the data from the G7 countries around 2020, we show that the differences between female and male TFRs range from 0.6% in France to 8.4% in Italy. Assuming constant mortality and fertility rates and zero migration for the G7 countries, the median difference between the annual births in female-renewal and male-renewal population projections reaches 9% in 2100. To address these inconsistencies, we propose that two-sex fertility rates and two-sex renewal population projections could be a solution.

Suggested Citation

  • Nan Li & Hong Mi & Zhidong Liu, 2025. "Female, male, two-sex fertility rates and their population projections," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:12:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-025-04627-z
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-025-04627-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-025-04627-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-025-04627-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre‐André Chiappori & Edoardo Ciscato & Carla Guerriero, 2024. "Analyzing matching patterns in marriage: Theory and application to Italian data," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(3), pages 737-781, July.
    2. Vinod Mishra & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2010. "On the relationship between female labour force participation and fertility in G7 countries: evidence from panel cointegration and Granger causality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 361-372, April.
    3. Xi Song & Robert D. Mare, 2017. "Short-Term and Long-Term Educational Mobility of Families: A Two-Sex Approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 145-173, February.
    4. Matthews, A.P. & Garenne, M.L., 2013. "A dynamic model of the marriage market—Part 2: Simulation of marital states and application to empirical data," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 86-93.
    5. Anna Matysiak & Tomáš Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 29-64, March.
    6. Fabio Augusto Milner & Kai Yang, 2016. "The logistic, age-structured, two-sex population model applied to U.S. demography," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 50-67, January.
    7. Ron Lesthaeghe, 2010. "The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 211-251, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    2. Shiqi Wang & Shuiying Zhong, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty, Cultural and Ideational Transition, and Low Fertility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Anelli, Massimo & Giuntella, Osea & Stella, Luca, 2019. "Robots, Labor Markets, and Family Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 12820, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. András Olivér Németh & Petra Németh & László Tőkés, 2025. "Empirical analysis of the differences in the drivers of fertility between CEE countries and the rest of the EU," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 1-25, June.
    5. Anna Matysiak & Daniele Vignoli, 2024. "Family Life Courses, Uncertain Futures, and the Changing World of Work: State-of-the-Art and Prospects," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Marcel Raab & Emanuela Struffolino, 2020. "The Heterogeneity of Partnership Trajectories to Childlessness in Germany," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(1), pages 53-70, March.
    7. Steven Ruggles, 2015. "Patriarchy, Power, and Pay: The Transformation of American Families, 1800–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(6), pages 1797-1823, December.
    8. Daniela Smiraglia & Luca Salvati & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Antonio Giménez-Morera & Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir, 2021. "Toward a New Urban Cycle? A Closer Look to Sprawl, Demographic Transitions and the Environment in Europe," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-14, January.
    9. Barbara S. Okun, 2013. "Fertility and marriage behavior in Israel," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(17), pages 457-504.
    10. Kravtsova, Maria & Libman, Alexander, 2023. "Historical family structure as a predictor of liberal voting: Evidence from a century of Russian history," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    11. Benoît Laplante & Teresa Castro-Martín & Clara Cortina & Teresa Martín-García, 2015. "Childbearing within Marriage and Consensual Union in Latin America, 1980–2010," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 85-108, March.
    12. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Eva Beaujouan & Kryštof Zeman, 2022. "Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2085-2114, October.
    13. Olga Isupova, 2015. "Trust, responsibility, and freedom: Focus-group research on contemporary patterns of union formation in Russia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(11), pages 341-368.
    14. Arnstein Aassve & Letizia Mencarini & Elena Pirani & Daniele Vignoli, 2023. "The last bastion is falling: Survey evidence of the new demographic reality in Italy," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2023_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    15. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Dirk Konietzka & Philippe Lambert & Vincent Jerald Ramos, 2023. "Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-27, December.
    16. Bhashkar Mazumder, 2018. "Intergenerational Mobility in the United States: What We Have Learned from the PSID," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 680(1), pages 213-234, November.
    17. Zsolt Spéder & Balázs Kapitány, 2014. "Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(3), pages 393-418, June.
    18. Anatole Romaniuk & Oleksandr Gladun, 2015. "Demographic Trends in Ukraine: Past, Present, and Future," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(2), pages 315-337, June.
    19. Jan Skopek & Thomas Leopold, 2020. "Educational Reproduction in Germany: A Prospective Study Based on Retrospective Data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1241-1270, August.
    20. Karen Benjamin Guzzo, 2014. "New Partners, More Kids," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 654(1), pages 66-86, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:12:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-025-04627-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.