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Countries' Repayment Performance Vis-Ã -Vis the IMF: An Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Lynn Aylward

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Rupert Thorne

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

While the literature on external debt repayment performance by sovereign debtors is extensive, repayment performance vis-Ã -vis the International Monetary Fund has not been dealt with separately. Given differences between the IMF and other providers of financial resources, this paper considers whether it is possible to distinguish through logit analysis between the countries that make timely repayments to the Fund and those that become overdue. The paper finds that the inclusion of IMF-specific financial variables and a small number of macroeconomic variables yields a highly significant econometric model of the probability of a country incurring IMF arrears.

Suggested Citation

  • Lynn Aylward & Rupert Thorne, 1998. "Countries' Repayment Performance Vis-Ã -Vis the IMF: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 595-618, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:45:y:1998:i:4:p:595-618
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lynn Aylward, 1999. "Countries' Repayment Performance Vis-à-Vis the IMF: A Response to Bäcker," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-7.
    2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2012. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 889-946.
    3. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2007. "The Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: New Evidence From A Panel Of Middle Eastern Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    4. Olivier Jeanne & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "International bailouts, moral hazard and conditionality," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 408-432.
    5. Aart Kraay & Vikram Nehru, 2006. "When Is External Debt Sustainable?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 341-365.
    6. Martin Iseringhausen & Ms. Mwanza Nkusu & Wellian Wiranto, 2019. "Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 2019/245, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Perazzi, Elena, 2020. "Sovereign Bailouts and Moral Hazard with Strategic Default," MPRA Paper 101949, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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