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Dual Exchange Rates in the Presence of Incomplete Market Separation: Long-Run Effectiveness and Policy Implications

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  • Daniel Gros

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The literature on dual exchange rate regimes assumes that the separation between the two foreign exchange markets is perfect. In this paper a divergence between the two exchange rates induces a flow of arbitrage activity, the magnitude of which depends on both the costs of evading exchange controls and the size of the exchange rate differential. These arbitrage flows lead to a gradual convergence of the two exchange rates. In the long run, therefore, a dual exchange rate regime with a fixed commercial rate imposes the same constraints as a fixed unified exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Gros, 1988. "Dual Exchange Rates in the Presence of Incomplete Market Separation: Long-Run Effectiveness and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 437-460, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:35:y:1988:i:3:p:437-460
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hanson, James A., 1992. "Opening the capital account : a survey of issues and results," Policy Research Working Paper Series 901, The World Bank.
    2. Wen-ya Chang & Ching-chong Lai, 1998. "The dynamic unsubstitutability of sterilization operations and neutral-intervention operations under dual exchange rates," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 235-253, October.
    3. Ljungberg, Jonas, 2019. "Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates for Europe, 1870-2016: Some methodological issues," Lund Papers in Economic History 200, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    4. Paul Reding & Jean-Marie Viaene, 1995. "Capital controls and international trade finance in a dual exchange rate regime: The Belgian experience post-mortem," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(1), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Jacques Miniane & John H. Rogers, 2007. "Capital Controls and the International Transmission of U.S. Money Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1003-1035, August.
    6. Mikesell, Raymond F., 2001. "Dual Exchange Markets for Countries Facing Financial Crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1035-1041, June.
    7. Fuhmei Wang, 2003. "Leakages in dual exchange markets," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(3), pages 249-264.
    8. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1989. "Risk Neutrality and the Two-Tier Foreign Exchange Market: Evidence from Belgium," NBER Working Papers 3015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Interest rate differentials and exchange rate policies in Austria, The Netherlands, and Belgium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 363-386, May.

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