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The Economic Effects of a Borrower Bailout: Evidence from an Emerging Market

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  • Xavier Giné
  • Martin Kanz

Abstract

We study the credit market impact and real effects of one of the largest borrower bailouts in history, enacted by the government of India against the backdrop of the 2007–2008 financial crisis. We find that the bailout led to a significant reallocation of credit and greater defaults, but had no offsetting positive effect on productivity, wages, or consumption. Post-program loan performance deteriorates faster in districts with greater program exposure, an effect that is not driven by greater risk-taking of banks. Loan defaults become more sensitive to the electoral cycle after debt relief, suggesting strategic default in response to the bailout. Received December 1, 2015; editorial decision April 11, 2017 by Editor Philip Strahan.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Giné & Martin Kanz, 2018. "The Economic Effects of a Borrower Bailout: Evidence from an Emerging Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1752-1783.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:31:y:2018:i:5:p:1752-1783.
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    1. Agarwal, Sumit & Tantri, Prasanna & Vishen, Nitin, 2025. "Does social capital positively influence loan performance even during a crisis?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    2. André Albuquerque Sant’Anna & Lucas Costa, 2019. "Bailing out environmental liabilities: moral hazard and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon," Documentos de Trabajo 17435, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).
    3. Bhanot, Disha & Farias, Vivek & Sinha, Deeksha, 2025. "Interest subvention for crop loans in India: Win-win or win-lose ?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 371-393.
    4. Sudha Narayanan & Nirupam Mehrotra, 2019. "Loan Waivers and Bank Credit: Reflections on the Evidence and the Way Forward," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 44(4), pages 198-210, December.
    5. Sasha Indarte & Martin Kanz, 2024. "Debt relief for households in developing economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 40(1), pages 139-159.
    6. Stefano Fiorin & Joseph Hall & Martin Kanz, 2023. "How do Borrowers Respond to a Debt Moratorium? Experimental Evidence from Consumer Loans in India," Working Papers 691, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    7. Aidt, Toke & Asatryan, Zareh & Badalyan, Lusine, 2024. "Political consequences of (consumer) debt relief," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-030, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Saibal Ghosh, 2023. "Political connections and bank behaviour," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 52(1), February.
    9. Kumar, Nitish, 2020. "Political interference and crowding out in bank lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    10. Ma, Chang & Nguyen, Xuan-Hai, 2021. "Too big to fail and optimal regulation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 747-758.
    11. Ajay Shah, 2023. "The journey of Indian finance," Working Papers 25, xKDR.
    12. Liu, Zihua & Zhou, Sili, 2022. "Political favoritism towards resource allocation: Evidence of grants by natural science foundation in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    13. World Bank, "undated". "South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 33478, The World Bank Group.
    14. Gao, Haoyu & Ouyang, Yiling & Wang, Yaxin, 2024. "Corporate bond defaults and spillover effects on bank risk: Evidence from city commercial banks in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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