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Information Projection: Model and Applications

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  • Kristóf Madarász

Abstract

People exaggerate the extent to which their information is shared with others. This paper introduces the concept of such information projection and provides a simple but widely applicable model. The key application describes a novel agency conflict in a frictionless learning environment. When monitoring with ex post information, biased evaluators exaggerate how much experts could have known ex ante and underestimate experts on average. Experts, to defend their reputations, are too eager to base predictions on ex ante information that substitutes for the information jurors independently learn ex post and too reluctant to base predictions on ex ante information that complements the information jurors independently learn ex post. Instruments that mitigate Bayesian agency conflicts are either ineffective or directly backfire. Applications to defensive medicine are discussed. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristóf Madarász, 2012. "Information Projection: Model and Applications," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(3), pages 961-985.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:79:y:2012:i:3:p:961-985
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdr044
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    Cited by:

    1. Madarász, Kristóf, 2015. "Bargaining under the Illusion of Transparency," CEPR Discussion Papers 10327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ran Spiegler, 2016. "Bayesian Networks and Boundedly Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(3), pages 1243-1290.
    3. David Danz & Frank Hüber & Dorothea Kübler & Lydia Mechtenberg & Julia Schmid, 2013. "‘I'll do it by myself as I knew it all along’: On the failure of hindsight-biased principals to delegate optimally," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-009, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Kristóf Madarász, 2015. "Projection Equilibrium: Definition and Applications to Social Investment and Persuasion," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series /2015/566, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    5. Alice Hsiaw & Ing-Haw Cheng, 2016. "Distrust in Experts and the Origins of Disagreement," Working Papers 110R3, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Mar 2018.
    6. Irlenbusch, Bernd & Ter Meer, Janna, 2013. "Fooling the Nice Guys: Explaining receiver credulity in a public good game with lying and punishment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 321-327.
    7. repec:cep:stitep:566 is not listed on IDEAS

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