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Informational Cycles

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  • Joseph Zeira

Abstract

This paper shows that if demand is unknown and continuously changing and if investment is costly, then output and investment are cyclical. The cycles are generated by changes in information over time, as investors increase production and thus accumulate more information about demand. These are, therefore, informational cycles. The paper also shows that the frequency of cycles depends positively on profitability and negatively on the rate of interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Zeira, 1994. "Informational Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 31-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:61:y:1994:i:1:p:31-44.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/2297875
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    Cited by:

    1. Schivardi, Fabiano, 2003. "Reallocation and learning over the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 95-111, February.
    2. Huanxing Yang, 2010. "Information aggregation and investment cycles with strategic complementarity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 43(2), pages 281-311, May.
    3. Osnat Zohar, 2019. "Boom-Bust Cycles of Learning, Investment and Disagreement," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.06, Bank of Israel.
    4. Joel Peress, 2014. "Learning from Stock Prices and Economic Growth," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(10), pages 2998-3059.
    5. Beaudry, Paul & Gonzalez, Francisco M., 2003. "An equilibrium analysis of information aggregation and fluctuations in markets with discrete decisions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 76-103, November.
    6. Geert Bekaert & Alexander Popov, 2019. "On the Link Between the Volatility and Skewness of Growth," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 746-790, December.
    7. Creane, Anthony, 1996. "An informational externality in a competitive market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 331-344, May.
    8. Vettas, Nikolaos, 1997. "Entry and exit under demand uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 227-234, December.
    9. Veldkamp, Laura L., 2005. "Slow boom, sudden crash," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 230-257, October.
    10. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    11. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2022. "Financial crisis and slow recovery with Bayesian learning agents," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 18(4), pages 578-606, December.
    12. Flavio Toxvaerd, 2005. "Record Breaking and Temporal Clustering," Discussion Paper Series dp395, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    13. Bertocchi, Graziella & Spagat, Michael, 1998. "Growth under uncertainty with experimentation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 209-231, September.
    14. Fishman, Arthur & Rob, Rafael, 1998. "Experimentation and Competition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 299-320, February.
    15. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
    16. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July.
    17. Cheremukhin, Anton & Tutino, Antonella, 2016. "Information rigidities and asymmetric business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 142-158.
    18. Jones, Robert & Newman, Geoffrey, 1995. "Adaptive Capital, Information Depreciation and Schumpeterian Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 897-915, July.
    19. Süssmuth, Bernd, 2000. "Endogenously-Timed Herding And The Synchronization Of Investment Cycles," Discussion Papers in Economics 24, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    20. Peress, Joel, 2010. "The tradeoff between risk sharing and information production in financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 124-155, January.
    21. Horii, Ryo & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2009. "Information Cycles and Depression in a Stochastic Money-in-Utility Model," MPRA Paper 13485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2005. "Financial Crisis and Recovery: Learning-based Liquidity Preference Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 0504016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Moretto, Michele, 2000. "Irreversible investment with uncertainty and strategic behavior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 589-617, December.

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