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Demographic Destiny, Per-Capita Consumption, and the Japanese Saving-Investment Balance

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  • Dekle, Robert

Abstract

In this paper, we revisit the issue of the impact of demographic change on the Japanese saving investment balance. Using updated government projections, we show that the ageing of the population under way will steadily lower Japan's saving rate from 31 per cent of GDP today to 20 per cent of GDP in 2040. Japan's investment rate will remain close to its current level of 29 per cent. Thus, Japan's saving investment balance, or current account, will steadily decrease from its current level and will turn negative in 2025. In addition, we project the impact of demographic change on the evolution of Japanese consumption per capita, or "living standards". Despite the population ageing, we project that per-capita consumption will grow until 2010. However, under certain scenarios, consumption per capita falls in most years after 2010. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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  • Dekle, Robert, 2000. "Demographic Destiny, Per-Capita Consumption, and the Japanese Saving-Investment Balance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(2), pages 46-60, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:16:y:2000:i:2:p:46-60
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    Cited by:

    1. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    2. Michael Feroli, 2003. "Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Feroli, Michael, 2006. "Demography and the U.S. current account deficit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, March.
    4. Gindra Kasnauskiene & Karol Michnevic, 2017. "Contribution of increased life expectancy to economic growth: evidence from CEE countries," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 6(2), pages 82-99, November.
    5. Hiroshi Ono & Marcus Rebick, 2003. "Constraints on the Level and Efficient Use of Labor," NBER Chapters, in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 225-258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kim, Euijune & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. & Lee, Changkeun, 2016. "Impact of educational investments on economic losses from population ageing using an interregional CGE-population model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 126-138.
    7. Hiroshi Ono & Marcus E. Rebick, 2003. "Constraints on the Level and Efficient Use of Labor in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. William Poole, 2005. "A perspective on the graying population and current account balances," Speech 7, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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