IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/indcch/v12y2003i4p653-672.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Which dreams come true? Endogeneity, industry structure and forecasting accuracy

Author

Listed:
  • Michael L. Barnett
  • William H. Starbuck
  • P. Narayan Pant

Abstract

Forecasts are plentiful. Accurate long-range forecasts are rare. But some forecasts are more accurate than others are and a few are very accurate. In this paper, we first explore the case of Moore's Law, a forecast that has proven quite accurate for almost 40 years. We illustrate how expectations that Moore's Law will continue to be accurate actually make it accurate. Based on the insights of this case, we hypothesize that two factors facilitate such self-fulfilling forecasts and so make accuracy more possible. We test these hypotheses on a set of 3142 forecasts about US manufacturing industries during the 1970s. We find that high industry concentration and high control over the predicted variable tend to increase the accuracy of forecasts. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael L. Barnett & William H. Starbuck & P. Narayan Pant, 2003. "Which dreams come true? Endogeneity, industry structure and forecasting accuracy," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 12(4), pages 653-672, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:12:y:2003:i:4:p:653-672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rahul Kapoor & Daniel Wilde, 2023. "Peering into a crystal ball: Forecasting behavior and industry foresight," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 704-736, March.
    2. Starbuck, William H. & Barnett, Michael L. & Baumard, Philippe, 2008. "Payoffs and pitfalls of strategic learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 7-21, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:12:y:2003:i:4:p:653-672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/icc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.