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A Short-run Econometric Analysis of the International Coffee Market

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  • Palm, F C
  • Vogelvang, E

Abstract

The authors develop a short-run econometric model for the world coffee market and give empirical evidence on the behavioral equations of the model for the major coffee importing and exporting countries. The behavioral relationships for producers, inventory holders, speculators, and consumers are derived from optimizing considerations in an uncertain environment. Spot and futures prices adjust to clear the spot and futures markets at each period. International trade flows of coffee are determined by the optimizing behavior of the agents (countries) in the model. The empirical evidence confirms the authors' hypothesis of a highly structured model which is consistent with profit maximizing behavior under uncertainty. Copyright 1986 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Palm, F C & Vogelvang, E, 1986. "A Short-run Econometric Analysis of the International Coffee Market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 13(4), pages 451-476.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:13:y:1986:i:4:p:451-76
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    Cited by:

    1. John M. Fry & Baoying Lai & Mark Rhodes, 2011. "The interdependence of Coffee spot and futures market," Working Papers 2011.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    2. Vogelvang, E., 1990. "Hypotheses testing concerning relationship between spot prices of various types of coffee," Serie Research Memoranda 0012, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    3. Ronning, Gerd, 1989. "An econometric analysis of West-German coffee imports," Discussion Papers, Series II 92, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    4. Larry S. Karp & Jeffrey M. Perloff, 1993. "A Dynamic Model of Oligopoly in the Coffee Export Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(2), pages 448-457.
    5. Karp, Larry S. & Perloff, Jeffrey M., 1988. "Dynamic oligopoly: estimation and tests of market structure," CUDARE Working Papers 6105, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

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